Israeli Election Ends in Deadlock as Exit Polls Show Netanyahu and Opposition Short of Majority

Israel faces potentially prolonged coalition negotiations after Tuesday’s parliamentary election, with exit polls showing neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot securing enough seats to form a government, while Arab-led parties recorded unusually strong support.

By yourNEWS Media Newsroom

Israel’s national election ended Tuesday without a clear winner, as exit polls projected that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition nor the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot secured the 61 parliamentary seats necessary to form a majority government.

Projections released after polling stations closed at 10 p.m. local time showed Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious allies winning approximately 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset, compared with 52 to 53 seats for the Jewish-led opposition parties. Arab-led parties were projected to secure another 17 to 18 seats, potentially giving them significant influence over efforts to establish the next government.

The results remain preliminary, and the final distribution of seats could change as ballots are counted.

According to The Times of Israel, Channel 12 projected Netanyahu’s Likud party would remain the largest individual party with 24 seats, followed by Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party with 22.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party was projected to win 12 seats, while the Arab-led Joint List was expected to secure 11.

The projected results would leave both major political blocs dependent on additional parliamentary support to form a government.

The election was Israel’s first national vote since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent war in Gaza, making it an important test of Netanyahu’s leadership during the conflict and its aftermath.

Voters also weighed the government’s handling of national security, the economy, military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men and the political divisions that have persisted throughout Netanyahu’s tenure.

Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, emerged as Netanyahu’s principal challenger after campaigning on government accountability and changes to Israel’s national leadership.

Netanyahu emphasized his administration’s military record and argued that his coalition remained necessary to protect Israeli security interests.

Tuesday’s exit polls, however, indicated that neither political camp had assembled sufficient support to govern independently.

As Axios reported, the opposition was projected to finish ahead of Netanyahu’s bloc but remained short of a parliamentary majority without support from additional parties.

The unexpectedly strong showing by Arab-led parties could complicate negotiations.

Those parties were projected to win as many as 18 seats, a record level of parliamentary representation for the Arab political sector.

Although they generally oppose Netanyahu, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have previously rejected forming governing coalitions with Arab-led parties.

That position could make it difficult for either side to obtain the 61 votes needed to establish a government.

Arab lawmakers could nevertheless influence negotiations through parliamentary support arrangements that do not require formal participation in a governing coalition.

Such arrangements have precedent in Israeli politics, although disagreements over security, national identity and relations with Palestinians have historically complicated cooperation between Arab-led and Jewish-led parties.

According to The Jerusalem Post, exit polls released by Israeli television networks Channels 11, 12 and 13 all indicated that neither principal bloc had secured an outright majority.

The projections broadly reflected public opinion surveys conducted before the election, which repeatedly showed a divided electorate and no clear path to a governing majority.

Turnout was exceptionally high throughout Tuesday.

Israel’s Central Elections Committee reported that 74.3% of eligible voters had cast ballots by 8 p.m., compared with 70.63% during the entire 2022 election.

Earlier in the day, Netanyahu had urged supporters to vote after reports of high participation in Arab communities.

He also accused political opponents of attempting to manipulate the election following the arrest of three individuals suspected of voter bribery.

The suspects were reportedly associated with the Arab Ra’am party, which denied wrongdoing.

Election officials had not established evidence of systematic fraud, and the arrests did not demonstrate that the broader voting process had been compromised.

The unusually high participation intensified speculation about the outcome, although turnout figures alone did not establish which parties benefited.

With polling stations now closed, attention shifts to the official count and negotiations among the parties expected to enter parliament.

Israel uses a proportional representation system in which voters select party lists rather than directly electing a prime minister.

Parties must receive at least 3.25% of the national vote to qualify for seats in the Knesset.

Because the allocation of seats depends on the final vote totals and the performance of smaller parties, even modest differences between exit polls and official results can affect coalition calculations.

Preliminary results are expected Wednesday, with a more complete tally anticipated Friday. Official results are scheduled for publication Nov. 4, according to Al Jazeera’s election coverage.

Once the results are finalized, President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives of the elected parties before selecting a candidate to attempt to form a government.

The president is not required to choose the leader of the largest party. Instead, he considers which candidate has the strongest prospect of securing sufficient parliamentary support.

The designated candidate generally receives 28 days to assemble a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension.

If the first attempt fails, another candidate may be given an opportunity to form a government.

Should negotiations fail entirely, Israel could face another parliamentary election.

The country experienced five national elections between April 2019 and November 2022 as competing political factions repeatedly struggled to establish stable governing coalitions.

Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister while the process continues, unless and until a replacement government is formed.

The preliminary results leave several political possibilities unresolved, including whether opposition parties can find a workable arrangement with Arab-led factions or whether Netanyahu can attract support beyond his existing allies.

The final allocation of seats will determine the starting positions for those negotiations, but it may not immediately establish who will lead Israel’s next government.

For now, Tuesday’s election has produced a divided parliament in the exit polls, placing the country’s political future in the hands of party leaders who must negotiate a governing majority or prepare for another national vote.