On Oct. 20, 2026, a week before Israel’s elections, dozens of men – arrests that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu .”
The young men attend ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, religious schools, whose students were long exempt from the military service mandatory for most Israelis. that Haredi men must be drafted alongside other Jewish youth intensified the conscription debate. Netanyahu’s government has failed to either legalize the draft exemption or enforce the court’s ruling, though he has said Haredim who are not studying .
With Israel’s military fighting in several conflicts, those exemptions have become increasingly unpopular: The vast majority of Jewish voters . Haredi political parties, however, are key potential coalition members as Netanyahu attempts to secure his political future. Although a relatively small percentage of the population, the Haredim hold disproportionate sway in Israel’s parliamentary system.
Growing population
Haredi Jews and often disapprove of liberal interpretations. They typically live in Haredi-majority neighborhoods where large families are the norm – – and about half of the men . The , more than double the percentage for non-Haredi Jews.
The Israeli public is , but the community is growing quickly because of its high birth rate. Projections by the Central Bureau of Statistics estimate that almost by 2050.
Haredi communities are diverse and represented by two main political parties. Haredim who are Ashkenazi – Jews whose ancestors – are linked to United Torah Judaism, or UTJ. Those who are Sephardi or Mizrachi, meaning their ancestors and the Middle East, are linked to Shas.
A third Haredi party, Haredi Public, was . The party says it will represent Haredim , emphasizing employment and poverty, housing development and the education system. Unlike the other two Haredi parties, it has on its candidate list.
Conservative allies
Elections for the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, use . Any party that receives more than 3.25% of votes receives seats based on the fraction of votes it received. Each party allocates its seats to members based on a list of candidates published before elections.
Having multiple parties with similar target demographics risks dividing the vote, leaving that group with fewer representatives in the Knesset. Shas and UTJ have in the 2026 election to maximize their overall seat share.
Because of the low electoral threshold, many parties are able to win seats. No Israeli party has ever attained the 50% share needed to control parliament by itself. As in other countries with similar systems, it is very common for parties to form coalitions and govern as a team.
Likud, one of the major conservative parties, has led most , with party leader Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister. Haredi parties are seen as , and they have been key coalition members for Likud administrations. Today, as Netanyahu over his handling of Oct. 7, 2023, and several wars, Likud may need them even more.
Landmark ruling
The fact that Likud has needed Haredi parties to form coalitions has given them negotiating power. For many years, one of their priorities has been .
Military service is mandatory for most groups in Israel, although are generally exempted. Jewish Israelis see conscription as a unifying experience and a of commitment to the state. Starting at age 18, most women serve two years and most men serve almost three years. Former soldiers can be called up as reservists into their 40s, depending on their training.
For decades, Haredi men received de facto exemptions. It was, effectively, one of several government arrangements that subsidize Haredi communities. Religious schools for teen boys and married men receive for each student. Given the communities’ low employment rates, large families and high poverty rates, many .
In 2024, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled that a blanket exemption from military service for Haredim . Netanyahu’s government struggled to enact a compromise between those who favored drafting Haredim and the Haredi parties; the failure to find a lasting legal way to exempt Haredi men led Shas and UTJ to in 2025.
Growing tensions
Nonetheless, this ruling has not led to mass conscription.
Haredi groups have , and many have ignored draft notices. While tens of thousands of men are , and most of them are Haredi, fewer than 500 evaders have been arrested in 2026. Netanyahu argues , saying they discourage men from enlisting without coercion.
In July 2026, at the urging of Haredi parties, the government to temporarily prevent arresting draft evaders. Some members of Netanyahu’s governing coalition opposed the law, however, and right-wing opposition parties .
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett – leader of the Together alliance, and seen as a key contender to oust Netanyahu – has threatened to if they continue to defy the draft. Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the centrist Yashar party, . He has proposed allowing , while drafting the majority.
As the number of conflict zones increases – Gaza, southern Lebanon and Iran, as well as deployments in the West Bank – the unequal burden of many conscripted Israelis and their families. Jewish Israelis favor drafting the Haredim.
Shas and UTJ, however, have declared they will not join a coalition unless it .
Shifting coalitions
When the Haredi parties exited Netanyahu’s coalition, Likud replaced them with that emphasize the state and Jewish supremacy. Particularly notable was , an offshoot of an earlier group ; including Kahanist groups was long seen as .
Haredi communities, on the other hand, tend to over the state. , and a small percentage . They argue that it was rather than waiting for God to return Jews to the land of Israel. Where nationalist politicians emphasize the secular state and military service, Haredim see their religious study as service to the Jewish community.
As Likud’s changing coalition shows, Netanyahu’s alliances are strategic rather than ideological. I believe his decision to side with the Haredim on the recent draft legislation suggests his coalition is open to revision after the October 2026 election.
As , its power in the electoral system will become less disproportionate. In a democratic framework, a large social group would deserve proportional representation and influence. As such, the tension between their electoral power, their demands for exemptions and subsidies, and the tolerance of non-Haredi Jews will persist as a political challenge.
Original article
Comments