Trump Discusses New ‘Route’ to Denuclearization; Expert Calls for Arms Control With China, Russia

President Donald Trump said in an interview with U.S. broadcaster Newsmax on Oct. 15 that the U.S. administration was discussing a route to denuclearization with its “peers,” suggesting that Washington was holding talks with Russia and China on nuclear disarmament.

Russia has an estimated 4,400 nuclear warheads, while the United States has 3,700 and China has 620. Trump said in the interview that China would catch up with the world’s leading nuclear powers in terms of nuclear stockpiles within the next five years.

“The whole thing is a shame because I’d love to denuclearize if possible,” Trump told Rob Finnerty when asked about his considering the use of the “mother of all bombs” (MOAB) on Iran following the midterms.

Trump had noted that the MOAB, which officially stands for “GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast,” is a non-nuclear weapon, and that “we don’t have to” resort to nuclear attacks.

The president said it was “a hard thing” to hold nuclear talks but that he was making efforts.

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“We’re actually talking ⁠to Russia about that, and ⁠we’re talking to China about that denuclearization.”

Wilder Alejandro Sanchez, an analyst who monitors geopolitical and defense issues and president of Washington-based Second Floor Strategies, told Vision Times that Washington needs a new treaty to replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), a series of arms-control agreements between the United States and Russia intended to reduce and limit their nuclear arsenals. START expired this Feb. 5.

“In other words, Washington and Moscow have no legally binding treaty. I do not think a ‘route’ exists. At most, we can expect Washington, Moscow, and perhaps Beijing to agree to have a discussion to address the need for a new nuclear weapons treaty,” Sanchez said.

Timing of the statement

The analysts noted that Trump’s statement came during a broader discussion of U.S. foreign policy. Otherwise, there has been no public comment or news coverage of any recent denuclearization discussions among the United States, Russia, and China.

“However, we have to remember that the midterm elections in the U.S. are less than a month away, and the war with Iran is very unpopular in the U.S., so President Trump’s statement should be taken with a grain of salt, as the situation could change after the midterms,” Sanchez said.

The expert cautioned that hypothetical denuclearization talks might achieve little given the complex and uncertain state of global geopolitics.

He believes some U.S. policymakers want a new nuclear arms-control agreement that includes Beijing, unlike START, which was an agreement between the United States and Russia.

“Some U.S. policymakers and analysts want a new nuclear arms-control agreement that also includes Beijing, as the U.S. sees China’s geopolitical ambitions and growing military capabilities as a threat in the Asia-Pacific and beyond,” he said.

According to Sanchez, the Chinese regime might accept an offer from Trump to hold a focused dialogue on nuclear weapons, which could help Beijing protect its global image, specifically by reinforcing the perception that it prefers dialogue to war.

He warned, however, that this would not imply that China intended to halt its nuclear weapons program, given the tense geopolitical situation in the Indo-Pacific region.

Citing the regional security challenges posed by China’s expanding military capabilities, Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has repeatedly urged Japan to hold open discussions on nuclear policy “without taboos,” The Japan Times reported.