NEW YORK, October 16 — ExxonMobil indicated that soaring refining margins could increase its downstream earnings by $4.5 billion in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, highlighting the financial benefits of rising fuel prices amid global supply disruptions.

Refining margins have climbed sharply as the war involving Iran has restricted energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, while Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have added pressure to global fuel supplies. Higher prices have also increased political pressure on the administration of US President Donald Trump ahead of the November midterm elections.

The earnings outlook could further intensify scrutiny of ExxonMobil and other major oil companies after Trump complained in August that Exxon and Chevron were making “too much money.”

Refining Profits Could More Than Double

Exxon’s regulatory filing suggests adjusted net income from its refining business could reach $8.5 billion, more than double the previous quarter’s level, according to BMO Capital Markets analyst Phillip Jungwirth.

The projected increase reflects stronger refining margins as disruptions to global oil and fuel supplies push prices higher.

However, the company faces a mixed outlook across its business segments. While refining operations are expected to benefit significantly, upstream earnings could decline because of lower crude oil prices.

Lower Crude Prices Weigh on Upstream Earnings

Exxon indicated that upstream earnings could fall by $1.3 billion compared with the second quarter. The average closing Brent crude benchmark price declined approximately 5.6% during the third quarter, according to LSEG data.

The company also reported no volume-related disruptions during the quarter stemming from the Iran war.

Meanwhile, the planned divestment of certain upstream assets is expected to contribute an additional $700 million to earnings.

Political Pressure Rises Alongside Fuel Prices

The anticipated refining windfall comes as higher gasoline and diesel prices create growing concerns about inflation and household expenses in the United States.

With the November midterm elections approaching, elevated fuel costs pose a political challenge for the Trump administration, which has sought to bring energy prices down.

The divergence between rising refining profits and pressure on consumers could renew debate over the role of oil companies in responding to supply disruptions and higher fuel prices.

Earnings Report Due October 30

ExxonMobil is scheduled to release its full third-quarter results on October 30, when investors will receive a more comprehensive breakdown of its financial performance.

The company’s shares were up less than 1% in premarket trading on Friday following the earnings preview.

Investors will be watching whether stronger downstream earnings can offset weaker upstream performance and how continued geopolitical uncertainty may affect the company’s results in the coming quarters.

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