IMF Raises Taiwan 2026 Growth Forecast to 10.7%, Highest in Asia-Pacific

The International Monetary Fund has sharply raised its forecast for Taiwan’s economic growth this year to 10.7 percent, more than double its April projection of 5.2 percent, as booming demand for artificial intelligence hardware continues to drive the island’s technology exports.

The revised forecast is the highest in the Asia-Pacific region and makes Taiwan the only economy projected by the IMF to record double-digit growth in 2026, according to the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook data and Taiwan’s Central News Agency (CNA).

The IMF projects global growth of 3.1 percent this year. By comparison, Japan is forecast to grow 0.7 percent, South Korea 3.3 percent, Singapore 5.0 percent and Hong Kong 3.8 percent. China is projected to grow 4.5 percent, while the United States is expected to expand by 2.3 percent.

Taiwan’s National Development Council said the stronger outlook reflects the island’s growing importance in the global AI and semiconductor supply chain. The government is pursuing its Ten AI Initiatives Promotion Plan, which includes investment in AI infrastructure, advanced technologies, industrial applications and workforce development.

AI boom drives Taiwan’s economic outlook

The IMF said the current technology cycle is helping offset some of the drag from geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs, with AI-related investment fueling exports and capital spending.

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Global AI hardware production remains highly concentrated. According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, only a small number of economies produce advanced semiconductors at scale, with Taiwan and South Korea accounting for about 62 percent of net trade in AI-related computing hardware.

The United States and China, meanwhile, accounted for more than 75 percent of net imports of AI-related computing hardware in 2025, underscoring the concentration of AI demand as well as production.

The IMF also raised its forecast for Taiwan’s consumer price inflation to 2.0 percent this year from 1.5 percent in April. Unemployment is projected at 3.4 percent, while Taiwan’s current-account surplus is expected to reach 22 percent of GDP, according to CNA’s report on the IMF outlook.

Emma Rafaelof, an economist with the U.S.-based Semiconductor Industry Association, told CNA that she remained optimistic about continued expansion in AI demand, while stressing the importance of cooperation among the United States, Taiwan and other economies as the industry develops.

Memory-chip profits surge amid tight supply

Strong semiconductor demand is also showing up in Taiwan’s corporate earnings.

Taiwanese memory-chip maker Nanya Technology reported third-quarter revenue of NT$133.65 billion, up 61.9 percent from the previous quarter, as average DRAM selling prices rose by more than 60 percent quarter over quarter. The company posted net income of NT$87.63 billion and earnings of NT$25.40 per share, according to its Oct. 12 earnings release.

Nanya President Lee Pei-ing said the DRAM market remains severely undersupplied and that prices are expected to continue rising in the fourth quarter. AI infrastructure products—including servers, networking, storage and system-management applications—now account for more than 20 percent of the company’s revenue, according to CNA.