Home sellers outnumbered buyers by nearly 63% in September, the widest gap in more than a decade, as rising mortgage rates and persistent affordability concerns pushed prospective homebuyers out of the market.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
The U.S. housing market shifted further in buyers’ favor in September as the number of Americans looking to purchase homes fell to a record low, leaving sellers facing mounting competition and increasingly difficult conditions.
According to a Redfin report released Wednesday, October 14, an estimated 1.51 million home sellers competed for approximately 928,892 buyers nationwide, creating a 62.6% seller surplus. The imbalance was the largest in the real estate brokerage’s records dating to 2013, surpassing the revised 56.9% gap recorded in August.
The number of prospective buyers declined 2.4% from August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decrease. Meanwhile, the number of sellers increased 1.2%, reaching its highest level since March 2020 as unsold properties accumulated and additional listings entered the market.
“This is a buyer’s market born out of caution, not strength,” Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said.
Khan attributed the imbalance to elevated housing costs and economic uncertainty, which have discouraged many households from purchasing property. Those who remain financially positioned to buy now face less competition and have greater opportunities to negotiate prices and concessions.
The shift has been particularly pronounced across the Sun Belt, where years of residential construction have expanded housing supply while demand has weakened.
Redfin classified 41 of the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas as buyers’ markets in September, the highest number recorded since the company began tracking the measure. A buyers’ market is defined as one in which sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%.
Miami recorded the largest imbalance, with 158.9% more sellers than buyers, followed by Nashville at 152.3%, Houston at 134.6%, Austin at 130.9% and Las Vegas at 125.5%.
All 13 metropolitan areas where sellers outnumbered buyers by more than two to one were located in the Sun Belt. Redfin attributed the regional imbalance partly to extensive homebuilding during previous years, which increased inventory even as higher borrowing costs reduced demand.
Florida faces additional affordability challenges from rising homeowners insurance premiums and homeowners association fees, placing further pressure on prospective buyers and existing homeowners.
Only five major metropolitan areas remained sellers’ markets: Nassau County, New York; Montgomery County, Pennsylvania; Newark, New Jersey; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and San Francisco.
Boston, Chicago, Providence, Rhode Island, and New Brunswick, New Jersey, were classified as balanced markets, with neither buyers nor sellers holding a substantial numerical advantage.
Redfin said limited construction has helped preserve competition among buyers in several northeastern markets. In San Francisco, wealth associated with the artificial intelligence industry has contributed to housing demand despite broader affordability challenges.
Although growing inventory has given buyers more negotiating power, elevated mortgage rates continue to prevent many households from entering the market.
According to Freddie Mac data reported by Reuters, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.4% in early October, its highest level since November 2023. Mortgage rates have climbed sharply amid renewed inflation concerns and higher Treasury yields.
The increase has substantially raised monthly payments for prospective buyers, particularly those purchasing homes in expensive metropolitan markets.
Housing prices also remain elevated despite weakening demand. A separate Redfin report showed the median existing-home sale price increasing 1.3% from a year earlier to approximately $393,895, the smallest annual gain since February.
Other industry figures indicate that prices remain historically high. The National Association of Realtors reported a September median existing-home price of $417,500, reflecting a different dataset and methodology.
Sellers have responded by increasingly reducing asking prices or offering concessions. Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of active listings included a price reduction in September, indicating growing pressure to attract buyers.
However, the expanding seller surplus does not necessarily signal an imminent housing market collapse. Many homeowners have substantial equity and low fixed-rate mortgages, allowing them to wait for better offers rather than sell at sharply discounted prices.
For prospective buyers who can afford current mortgage rates, the slowdown offers more choices, less competition and increased negotiating leverage. Sellers, meanwhile, face longer marketing periods and greater pressure to price homes realistically.
The September figures underscore a housing market increasingly defined by weak demand rather than a shortage of available properties, with affordability remaining the principal obstacle to a broader recovery.
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