Researchers project nearly 25 million new dementia diagnoses annually by 2050, with women and residents of lower-income countries facing disproportionately high rates as the world’s population ages.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
The number of people developing dementia worldwide each year could more than double by 2050, reaching nearly 25 million new cases annually as populations age, according to a major international study published Monday in JAMA Neurology.
The peer-reviewed study, published October 12, estimated that 11.4 million people developed dementia globally in 2023. Researchers projected that figure would rise 116% to 24.7 million annually by 2050, placing increasing pressure on healthcare systems, families and economies.
Led by researchers at the University of New South Wales Sydney, the investigation analyzed medical data from 38,418 participants across 22 population-based studies conducted in 18 countries and territories on six continents.
Researchers found that dementia incidence was higher among women than men and substantially greater in low- and middle-income countries compared with wealthier nations.
The findings come as more than 57 million people worldwide are already living with dementia, a group of conditions involving progressive declines in memory, thinking and other cognitive abilities that interfere with daily life.
Professor Henry Brodaty, a study co-author and co-director of UNSW’s Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing, said the projections demonstrate the urgent need for greater investment in prevention and treatment.
“Twenty-four million new cases of dementia every year would place enormous pressure on individuals, families, health systems and economies around the world,” Brodaty said in an October 13 university announcement.
“Population ageing means we cannot simply wait for people to develop dementia and then respond,” he added.
“We need to act across the spectrum—from reducing modifiable risk factors and identifying people at risk earlier, through to improving diagnosis, treatment and care.”
The study found an estimated 10.6 new dementia cases annually per 1,000 women, compared with 8.6 among men, after adjusting for age.
Rates were also significantly higher in lower-income and middle-income countries, at 13.6 cases per 1,000 person-years, compared with 8.3 in high-income countries.
Professor Perminder Sachdev, the study’s senior author, said the differences were especially troubling because countries facing rapid population aging often lack sufficient medical resources.
The higher rates are “particularly concerning because these regions are experiencing rapid population ageing while often having the fewest resources for prevention, diagnosis and care,” Sachdev said.
Researchers emphasized that the projections assume current age-specific dementia incidence rates remain constant. The expected increase largely reflects demographic changes rather than evidence that individuals will necessarily face a dramatically higher risk of developing dementia.
Alzheimer’s disease is the most common cause of dementia, although other conditions, including vascular dementia and Lewy body dementia, can also produce cognitive impairment.
In the United States, dementia affects more than 6 million people and contributes to over 100,000 deaths annually, according to federal health authorities.
Research cited by the National Institutes of Health estimates that approximately 42% of Americans older than 55 could develop dementia during their remaining lifetimes. The number of new annual U.S. cases is projected to double by 2060 as the population ages.
Health officials emphasize that some dementia risk factors can be reduced through lifestyle changes and appropriate medical care.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention identifies physical inactivity, smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, high blood pressure, uncontrolled diabetes and hearing loss among factors associated with increased dementia risk.
“High blood pressure can damage blood vessels and limit blood flow to the brain, which does damage to the brain. It also increases the risk of having a stroke, which can also damage the brain,” the CDC explained.
“Maintaining a healthy weight and taking your prescribed blood pressure medications can help.”
Scientists are also exploring ways to identify dementia risk decades before symptoms appear.
A study published in JAMA Network Open in March found that elevated blood levels of phosphorylated tau 217, or p-tau217, were associated with an increased likelihood of dementia among women, potentially providing a method for identifying risk long before noticeable cognitive decline.
“We observed a 3-fold higher hazard of all-cause dementia with higher baseline p-tau217 levels,” researchers reported.
The association was particularly pronounced among women older than 70, although additional research is needed before such blood tests can be widely used to predict future dementia.
The latest global findings reinforce the importance of earlier diagnosis, preventive healthcare and expanded access to specialized treatment.
Researchers warned that without additional investment in dementia prevention and care, aging populations could face a substantial increase in the financial, medical and personal burdens associated with cognitive decline over the next 25 years.
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