Japan is due to revise its three major security documents by the end of this year and is considering whether to include a plan to study the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. However, no final decision has been made, with the government still weighing consultations within the ruling coalition and recommendations from an expert panel, The Japan Times reported.
Japanese media described nuclear submarines as an important means of deterrence amid the evolving security situation in the Indo-Pacific, where the Chinese military footprint is rapidly expanding. “(Nuclear submarines) can quickly flee after firing in order not to be hit by a counterattack,” a senior Defense Ministry official told The Japan Times. “They would be highly useful.”
Asia Today reported that a “review of acquisition” would help Tokyo establish a “policy foundation” for moving forward with research and feasibility studies.
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Changing defense attitudes in Japan
However, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that despite “growing regional rivalries,” the Japanese government will face “pushback” from certain sectors of a society that experienced a nuclear attack decades ago and continues to endure its repercussions even today.
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Tadashi Anno, a professor of politics at Tokyo’s Sophia University, told the SCMP that attitudes in Japan have changed considerably over the past few decades and that people’s understanding of national security-related issues has evolved with the changing context.
In recent years Japan has witnessed drastic changes in its defence policy and national security attitude–it launched its first aircraft carrier since the end of World War II in 2024, officially returning to fixed-wing carrier operations for the first time since a nuclear bomb was dropped on it. It recently also revised its export rules that now allow its companies to export weapons to partner nations and it is also planning the acquisition of long-range missiles that can be launched from submarines.
“Anyone who is paying attention to national security issues has grown much more realistic about all the challenges surrounding Japan and has become more accepting of recent military programmes,” said Tadashi.
The expert expects the new document to mention that nuclear-powered submarines can create additional deterrence. “That could easily be seen as a justification for Japan doing the same and I think that logic would help convince some that having a nuclear-powered submarine is no longer a taboo and is at least an option,” added Tadashi.
Nuclear-powered submarine at least a decade away
Joseph Kristanto, a maritime security analyst at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies told South China Morning Post that Japan’s strategic technology has evolved but it’s still behind what the American and the Chinese navies have achieved.
“China, in particular, is developing its submarine capabilities quite rapidly and is able to operate ballistic missile submarines in the South China Sea and elsewhere,” he said. “In order for Japan to be able to track those boats, it would need nuclear-powered vessels.”
Kristanto argued that it doesn’t mean Japan joining any arms race but in context of the growing defense ecosystem in the region, Japan doesn’t want to be left behind. “A nuclear-powered submarine is just one element of a blue water capability and Japan would need surface ships if it wanted to operate a long way from its own ports,” he told SCMP. “Japan does not have that capability now and I do not think it would be sustainable over the long term.”
Kristanto believes there will be reluctance in some segments in the country to re-establish nuclear technology not only because of the destruction suffered by Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but also due to insecurities that arose due to the disaster at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in March 2011.
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