Middle East Oil Exports Recover as Tanker Attacks Keep Global Supply Risks High

Middle East — Crude oil exports from the Middle East surpassed levels recorded before the Iran war on four days during the final week of September, according to shipping data cited by Reuters. The increase came as attacks involving vessels continued around the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

Data from ship-tracking firm Kpler showed regional crude exports reached between 19.5 million barrels per day and 22.5 million bpd on September 24 and from September 27 through September 29. Before the war, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026.

Kpler reported that the seven-day moving average reached 18.5 million bpd on October 1. The figure covers shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, exports from terminals, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

When crude oil, refined products, chemicals and non-gas liquids were combined, regional exports averaged 22.4 million bpd over the seven days through September 30. Liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz also reached their highest monthly level since February during September.

Despite the recovery in exports, risks remain around the world’s major energy transit route. Before the conflict began on February 28, about 125 large commercial vessels traveled through the strait each day. The route typically carries roughly 20% of the world’s daily crude oil and LNG supply.

Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven attacks involving tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was reportedly hit by an unidentified projectile on October 1 and caught fire.

Marisks said all crew members were safe and evacuated from the vessel. Kpler data indicated that the tanker had most recently been recorded unloading 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Oman’s Ras Markaz port on September 17.

The ongoing attacks highlight why a rebound in export volumes does not necessarily mean energy markets have returned to normal. Tankers continue to face security threats, while operators must manage disruptions to established routes and increased risks involved in transporting energy through the region.

Global oil markets are therefore balancing two opposing developments: stronger physical exports from Middle Eastern producers and continued uncertainty over whether vessels can safely and efficiently deliver those supplies to international buyers.