A new national survey finds Latino registered voters prefer Democrat control of Congress by 59% to 35%, while President Donald Trump receives a 27% approval rating among the group amid widespread concern over the economy, cost of living and immigration enforcement.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom.
Latino registered voters are favoring Democrats by a 24-point margin in the battle for control of Congress, according to a new NBC News/Telemundo poll that shows Republicans have lost some of the ground they gained with the electorate during President Donald Trump’s successful 2024 campaign.
The NBC News/Telemundo survey, released Sunday, found that 59% of Latino voters want Democrats to control Congress following the Nov. 3 midterm elections, compared with 35% who prefer Republican control.
The 24-point Democratic advantage is twice the party’s margin among Latino voters in NBC polling at the comparable point in the 2024 election cycle, though it remains smaller than the Democratic advantage recorded before the 2018 midterms.
The results represent a notable change from 2024, when Trump substantially improved Republican performance among Latino voters on his way back to the White House. Republicans subsequently made those gains a significant part of their strategy for retaining congressional control in 2026, particularly in heavily Latino areas of Florida and Texas.
The complete survey results show dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of economic issues is particularly pronounced.
Trump’s overall job approval rating among Latino voters stands at 27%. His weakest rating among the five issues tested is the cost of living, with 78% disapproving of his handling of the issue.
Seventy-four percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, 69% disapprove of his handling of immigration and 68% disapprove of his foreign policy.
Border security produced Trump’s strongest result of the five areas measured, although a majority remained dissatisfied. Thirty-nine percent approved of his performance on border security while 58% disapproved.
Economic concerns appear to be driving much of the discontent.
Inflation and the cost of living were identified as the single most important issue by 33% of Latino voters, placing the issue ahead of other concerns tested in the survey. Sixty-five percent said Trump’s policies have hurt economic conditions, compared with 23% who said they have helped.
The change in perceptions of economic stewardship is particularly pronounced compared with the 2024 presidential campaign.
Two years ago, Latino voters gave Trump a four-point advantage over then-Vice President Kamala Harris when asked who would better handle the economy. In the new survey, Latino voters give Democrats a 21-point advantage over Republicans on the issue.
That reversal could have significant implications for congressional candidates who had hoped to build upon Trump’s 2024 performance, though a national survey does not predict results in individual House or Senate contests and Latino voting patterns can differ substantially by state, national origin, generation and other factors.
Republicans also retain more support among Latino voters than they did through much of the previous decade. Despite the current Democratic advantage, the 35% preferring Republican control of Congress remains higher than Republican support measured in NBC News Latino polling between 2012 and the period preceding the 2024 election cycle.
Views of both major parties have become more negative.
Sixty-two percent of Latino voters now view the Republican Party unfavorably, an increase of 16 percentage points from two years ago. Negative views of the Democratic Party have also increased, with 42% holding an unfavorable opinion, up four points.
Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates, the Democratic pollster who conducted the survey alongside Republican pollster Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies, said the results should not necessarily be interpreted as an embrace of the Democratic Party.
Cardona-Arroyo said potential Democratic gains in November appear more likely to be driven by opposition to Trump and dissatisfaction with current economic conditions than by increased enthusiasm for Democrats themselves.
Roberts described Latino voters as the most volatile swing group in the electorate, underscoring the substantial movement that has occurred since the 2024 presidential election.
The results could be particularly important in congressional districts where Republicans sought to capitalize on Trump’s gains.
After the 2024 election, Republicans made stronger Latino support a central component of their strategy for preserving the House majority. Heavily Latino districts in Florida and Texas were drawn or evaluated by party strategists as increasingly favorable to Republicans based on the 2024 results.
The new polling suggests some of those assumptions may face a test in November, with several districts containing large Latino populations now considered competitive.
Immigration presents a more complicated picture.
Two-thirds of Latino voters said the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement measures have gone too far, while 22% said the administration has taken the right approach.
At the same time, the survey found overwhelming support for deporting illegal immigrants who have committed serious crimes. Eighty-three percent favor deporting all undocumented immigrants convicted of serious offenses.
Support falls sharply when the policy is broadened beyond serious criminals. Thirty-seven percent support deporting every undocumented immigrant in the United States.
The contrasting numbers suggest Latino voters distinguish between enforcement directed at serious criminal offenders and a universal deportation policy covering the entire population living in the country illegally.
On border security, Latino voters are essentially divided over which political party they trust more to handle the issue, even while a majority disapproves of Trump’s current performance.
The midterm results could also depend heavily on whether increased political dissatisfaction translates into turnout.
Latino voters reported substantially greater interest in the 2026 elections than they did at the comparable stage of the 2024 campaign. Seventy-two percent rated their interest in the November elections at the maximum level of 10 out of 10, compared with 54% two years ago.
A majority also said their vote is intended to convey a message about the president.
Fifty-four percent said their midterm vote is meant to signal opposition to Trump, while 21% said they intend their vote to demonstrate support for him.
Those numbers place Trump squarely at the center of the congressional contest among Latino voters, even though his own name will not appear on the Nov. 3 ballot.
The NBC News polling report is based on interviews with 800 registered Latino voters conducted from Sept. 21 through Sept. 28. Cardona-Arroyo and Roberts conducted the poll using a combination of telephone interviews and an online survey distributed by text message.
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
As with any poll, the results represent a snapshot of voter opinion during the period in which respondents were interviewed rather than a prediction of the November outcome. The findings nevertheless show a substantial shift from the political environment Republicans confronted two years ago, when Trump’s improving performance among Latino voters became one of the defining developments of the 2024 election.
The Republican challenge heading into the final month of the midterm campaign is retaining those gains amid widespread Latino dissatisfaction over the cost of living and the economy, while Democrats face a different question: whether opposition to Trump translates into support for Democratic congressional candidates despite the party’s own increasingly negative ratings.
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