Taiwan’s Taipei mayoral race has tightened with just over two months remaining before the local elections. A new poll released on Sept. 22 showed incumbent Kuomintang (KMT) Mayor Chiang Wan-an with 41.7 percent support, compared with 40.5 percent for Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Shen Po-yang — a difference of 1.2 percentage points.
The gap falls within the survey’s 3-percentage-point margin of error, according to a report by the Taipei Times, putting the two candidates statistically close in the poll. Veteran journalist Akio Yaita said the results showed that Shen’s recent “ocean current” of political momentum had begun to take hold, while cautioning that winning over centrist and independent voters would present a more difficult challenge.
Poll shows race within margin of error
According to TTV News, Chiang’s job approval stood at 52.4 percent, while 41.6 percent of respondents said they were dissatisfied with his performance.
When respondents were asked which party they would prefer to control the Taipei mayor’s office, 42 percent said the DPP should be given a chance to govern, while 38 percent said the KMT should remain in office. The Taipei Times reported that Chiang retained a substantial advantage when respondents were asked which candidate they expected to win: 57.8 percent named Chiang, compared with 21.3 percent for Shen.
The survey interviewed 1,076 Taipei residents aged 20 or older, including 752 reached by landline and 324 by mobile phone.
For the best of our weekly content！
You are now signed up for our newsletter
Check your email to complete sign up
Asked about the poll, Chiang said the figures would be taken into consideration but maintained that his priority was continuing municipal work and completing projects promised to Taipei residents.
“Any numbers are for reference,” Chiang said, according to TTV News, adding that his administration would continue advancing city projects.
Shen, meanwhile, acknowledged that his public profile had risen but cautioned against interpreting that as guaranteed support. In a separate TTV News report, Shen said his name recognition had increased somewhat but that it did not necessarily translate into voter support.
“For us, there is still a long way to go,” Shen said.
Yaita says campaign has entered ‘deep water’
Writing on Facebook, veteran media personality Akio Yaita said the gap between Chiang and Shen had been considerably larger several months earlier, when many people viewed the race as having virtually no suspense. “Now, I have to say that Shen Po-yang’s ‘ocean current’ has already gained momentum,” he wrote, according to Newtalk.
Yaita pointed to the recent Okinawa gubernatorial election in Japan as an example, saying 42-year-old newcomer Genta Kosei overcame incumbent Danny Tamaki after initially being regarded as the less likely challenger.
“No one knows the result until the final moment,” Yaita said in comments reported by Newtalk. He added that the next question in Taipei would be whether Shen could continue expanding his support beyond the DPP’s traditional base.
Yaita cautioned Shen’s supporters against becoming overly confident. He argued that Shen’s earlier weakness was partly due to limited name recognition and that months of campaigning and media exposure had helped him consolidate support among voters already inclined toward the DPP.
Moving from roughly 30 percent to 40 percent support can be achieved partly by consolidating a party’s base, Yaita said, but going from 40 percent to 50 percent is much more difficult.
The campaign has therefore entered what he described in the Newtalk report as “deep water,” where attracting centrist and independent voters becomes increasingly important.
Information warfare could become campaign issue
Yaita also said Chiang should not be underestimated. As the incumbent mayor, Chiang has high public visibility and an established political organization, and more than two months remain before voting day.
He noted that Chiang’s large lead when respondents were asked who they expected to win indicated that Shen’s recent momentum had not yet translated into broader expectations about the election outcome. Yaita’s full analysis was published by Newtalk and included a warning that the final stage of the campaign would be more difficult.
Yaita further warned that misleading or manipulated information could become more prevalent as Election Day approaches, including edited videos, anonymous allegations and other material targeting candidates.
Shen has long studied Chinese information and cognitive warfare and co-founded the civil-defense organization Kuma Academy. Reuters reported in May that Beijing sanctioned Shen in 2024 over what Chinese authorities described as pro-independence activities. In October 2025, Chinese authorities went further and opened a criminal investigation accusing him of “separatism,” according to Human Rights Watch, which described the case as an effort to apply Chinese law beyond the mainland.
Yaita urged voters to examine the source and evidence behind political claims before believing or sharing them.
He stressed that one poll cannot determine an election result, particularly when the candidates’ support levels fall within the survey’s margin of error. Still, Yaita told readers in his comments reported by Newtalk that the latest numbers showed the Taipei race had undergone a noteworthy change.
Original article
Comments