Emergency Just Declared! Invisible Pulse About to Strike & Coastal Damage May be Huge!

By Lisa Haven

An emergency has just been declared by California Governor Gavin Newsom as concerns continue to grow over what is happening with El Niño and the potential impacts along the West Coast. I’ve talked about El Niño a little bit in the past, but there is new information now surfacing regarding something known as Kelvin waves—essentially invisible pulses of warm water moving beneath the Pacific that could temporarily raise coastal sea levels. According to some of the warnings we are seeing, those waters could rise anywhere from around six inches to as much as one foot in certain areas. That becomes especially important when you consider what is already happening along California’s coastline.

Scientists are now warning that we could be looking at one of the strongest El Niño events in modern history, potentially rivaling an event that occurred back in the 1870s. Obviously, there are major differences between the world today and the world of 1877, but the warnings surrounding the potential weather, food, water and economic impacts are something people should at least be paying attention to. According to a report from Live Science, a “super El Niño” is now considered the most likely scenario between October 2026 and February 2027. The report cites a forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center regarding the developing El Niño.

El Niño is the warmer phase of the natural El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, climate cycle—a periodic shift in the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean that can increase global temperatures and impact weather patterns and crops around the world. And this is happening on top of other economic and energy concerns we are already dealing with. According to the forecast discussed in the report, NOAA estimates there is a 65% chance that El Niño will be classified as strong or very strong in October, which would place it among the strongest events in history.

If a super El Niño does develop, scientists say it could potentially rival the powerful 1877 event connected to the 1876-1878 global famine, which the report says killed more than 50 million people, or roughly 3% of the world’s population at the time. Now, I want to be very clear about something here. I do not see an El Niño today having the same humanitarian impact that occurred in the 1870s. We have a lot of different things in play today. We have significantly more technology, transportation, food distribution, communication and availability than people had in 1877. So I’m not saying we are going to see anything close to that kind of death toll. However, the weather impacts could still become significant, and that is something people should prepare for—especially those living along the West Coast.

That brings us to the Kelvin waves. An invisible pulse of warm water is moving beneath the Pacific, potentially raising sea levels and reshaping coastal waters along parts of the West Coast. These underwater Kelvin waves are associated with El Niño and can help intensify some of its effects. Kelvin waves begin when westerly winds push warm water eastward along the equator. After reaching Central and South America, those waves can turn north and travel along the coastline as coastally trapped waves, carrying El Niño’s warm-water influence from Baja California toward Alaska.

That means California is not the only area potentially affected. Oregon, Washington and other areas along the West Coast could also experience impacts. These underwater pulses of warm water move eastward across the Pacific during El Niño. Once they reach Central and South America, they can travel north along the coast, warming the upper ocean and temporarily raising coastal sea levels. That can allow high tides and storm-driven waves to reach farther inland.

During a strong or super El Niño, these Kelvin waves can temporarily raise sea levels along portions of the West Coast. The effect becomes especially important for low-lying shorelines and areas that are already dealing with coastal erosion. And that is really the point here. Many of these areas have already been impacted by erosion, and additional sea-level increases and stronger wave activity could simply make the situation worse. According to the information discussed in the report, Kelvin waves can produce changes in coastal sea levels of anywhere from approximately six inches to as much as one foot.

One foot may not sound dramatic when you first hear it, but when you are talking about already-eroding beaches combined with high tides, storms and powerful waves, that additional water can make a very big difference. And now California is preparing for exactly that possibility. On September 21, Governor Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency in an effort to bolster statewide El Niño preparedness and protect California ahead of the winter storm season. According to the state announcement, the developing El Niño event is already breaking records and is expected to continue strengthening, potentially becoming one of the strongest events in history.

There is a reason California officials are taking this seriously. Parts of the California coastline are already experiencing significant erosion, and several beaches and coastal areas have been damaged or closed. The governor’s office also referenced research published in the journal Science that found El Niño events have become more than 36% stronger compared with the pre-industrial era, with that trend accelerating over approximately the last 40 years. California officials are now telling residents to sign up for emergency alerts, understand the flood risks where they live, stay informed, have an evacuation plan and never attempt to drive through floodwaters.

And regardless of what you think politically about Gavin Newsom, those are reasonable precautions for anyone living in an area that could experience flooding or serious coastal erosion. Because when you start putting all of these pieces together, Lucy, we’ve got a problem. We potentially have one of the strongest El Niño events in history developing. We have Kelvin waves that could temporarily add six inches to a foot to coastal sea levels in some areas. And then you add that to beaches that are already experiencing significant erosion.

That combination could mean additional flooding, more erosion, property damage, insurance claims, damaged infrastructure and problems for homes built near beaches or coastal bluffs. And we are already seeing evidence of what this can look like. A Los Angeles Times report recently described major destruction along portions of the Southern California coastline, including an area where residents said, “the whole beach is gone.” Parts of the Long Beach Peninsula and its boardwalk have already suffered serious damage, giving residents a preview of what stronger winter conditions could potentially bring.

Malibu is also dealing with worsening beach erosion as California prepares for El Niño. Carlsbad has faced problems with crumbling coastal bluffs severe enough for local officials to declare an emergency. When homes, roads or infrastructure sit above those bluffs, worsening erosion creates the possibility of additional instability and damage. Laguna Beach has also declared a local emergency as worsening coastal erosion threatens portions of the shoreline. And Orange County’s Aliso Beach has experienced significant erosion as well.

So this is not simply one isolated beach or one isolated city. There are already coastal problems occurring in multiple areas of California before the strongest portion of this developing El Niño has even arrived. That is why people living in California, Oregon, Washington or anywhere along vulnerable sections of the West Coast should at least have a heads-up about what is developing. Know what is going on in your area. Understand whether your home is located in a flood zone or near an unstable coastline. Pay attention to local emergency alerts and have some kind of plan if conditions deteriorate.

The concern is not that some giant tsunami is suddenly going to wipe out the entire California coastline. The concern is the combination of rising coastal waters, high tides, powerful storms, stronger waves and already weakened beaches and bluffs. That can mean water reaching farther inland, beaches eroding faster, roads and property becoming threatened and communities dealing with additional flooding and damage.

And this could become increasingly important as we move into October, November, December and the winter months. We already have coastal erosion happening. We now have a potentially historic El Niño strengthening in the Pacific. And we have these underwater Kelvin waves moving along the West Coast that could temporarily raise coastal waters even further.

Add all of those things together, and people living along vulnerable parts of the coastline are going to want to pay attention. Because whether this becomes one of the strongest El Niño events in history remains to be seen. But California has already declared a state of emergency, local communities are already dealing with disappearing beaches and unstable coastal bluffs, and the strongest portion of this event may still be ahead of us. At the very least, this is something people along the West Coast need to be aware of—and something worth preparing for now rather than after the worst weather arrives.