Two new surveys show Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro separated by just one percentage point in opposite directions in potential runoff matchups ahead of Brazil’s Oct. 4 presidential election.

By yourNEWS Media Newsroom.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro remain statistically tied in potential second-round matchups less than two weeks before voters cast first-round ballots in Brazil’s presidential election.

Two polls released Monday produced nearly identical margins but opposite numerical leaders.

A Quaest survey showed Bolsonaro with 42% support in a hypothetical runoff against Lula’s 41%, while a separate BTG Pactual/Nexus poll put Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%.

Both surveys have margins of error of two percentage points, meaning neither one shows a statistically significant leader in the simulated runoff.

The results continue a pattern seen throughout September in which the two candidates have remained separated by only a few points — and frequently by no statistically meaningful difference — in second-round polling.

Brazil holds its first round Oct. 4. If no candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes, excluding blank and invalid ballots, the top two finishers advance to an Oct. 25 runoff.

Quaest Shows Bolsonaro at 42%, Lula at 41%

The latest Quaest survey gives Bolsonaro a numerical one-point advantage in the hypothetical second round, with 42% to Lula’s 41%.

That represents little movement from the previous Quaest poll released Sept. 14, when Bolsonaro registered 42% and Lula had 40%.

Because both results fall inside the survey’s two-point margin of error, the polling organization treats the matchup as statistically tied. Reuters likewise described the latest results as a statistical deadlock rather than a Bolsonaro lead.

Quaest’s first-round numbers continue to show Lula with the highest level of support among the candidates surveyed.

Lula registered 37% in the latest first-round scenario, followed by Bolsonaro with 33%, author Augusto Cury with 6% and Goiás Gov. Ronaldo Caiado with 4%.

The previous Quaest survey had Lula at 36% and Bolsonaro at 31%.

Those changes represent numerical movement within a race that has remained relatively stable in recent weeks.

Quaest surveyed 2,004 people between Sept. 17 and Sept. 20. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points.

Earlier Quaest polling had also shown a close second-round contest. On Sept. 7, Lula and Bolsonaro were tied at 41% each in a simulated runoff.

BTG Pactual/Nexus Gives Lula One-Point Numerical Edge

The latest BTG Pactual/Nexus survey produced almost the mirror image of Quaest’s result.

Lula received 46% support in a hypothetical second round, compared with 45% for Bolsonaro.

The one-point difference is also within the poll’s two-percentage-point margin of error.

A week earlier, BTG Pactual/Nexus had Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 46%, meaning both candidates declined one percentage point while the gap between them remained unchanged.

The BTG Pactual/Nexus first-round scenario puts Lula at 40%, followed by Bolsonaro at 37%.

Cury receives 6%, while Caiado has 5%.

In the previous survey released Sept. 14, Lula had 42% and Bolsonaro remained at 37%. Cury had 6% and Caiado 5%.

The latest results therefore show Lula declining two points in the first-round measurement while Bolsonaro remained unchanged.

Nexus interviewed 2,006 voters by telephone between Sept. 18 and Sept. 20. The survey covered all 27 Brazilian states and has a margin of error of two percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court.

The pollster also found that many respondents reported having settled on their choices.

Among respondents who selected a first-round candidate, 84% said their decision was already made and was unlikely to change before the election. The figure was 83% in the previous round.

Among Lula supporters, 90% said their decision was firm, compared with 92% of Bolsonaro supporters.

Runoff Surveys Have Remained Closely Divided

The latest polling follows several surveys showing similarly narrow second-round margins.

The Sept. 14 BTG Pactual/Nexus poll had Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 46%.

A Sept. 8 installment of the same survey showed the opposite numerical result, with Bolsonaro at 46% and Lula at 45%, again within the margin of error.

Quaest’s Sept. 7 poll put both candidates at 41%.

Another recent AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey also found Lula and Bolsonaro statistically tied in a hypothetical runoff, according to Reuters.

The recurring one- and two-point differences illustrate the limitations of treating the numerical leader in an individual survey as holding a definitive advantage. Polls are estimates of voter sentiment at the time interviews are conducted and carry sampling uncertainty reflected in their stated margins of error.

The surveys also measure hypothetical second-round choices before the first round has occurred.

For now, the two latest national polls point to the same broad picture despite putting different candidates one point ahead: Lula continues to register the highest first-round support in both surveys, while a potential Lula-Bolsonaro runoff remains statistically tied as Brazil approaches the Oct. 4 vote.

Original article