Europe — Europe is expected to confront a significant jet-fuel shortage in the fourth quarter as the Iran war continues to disrupt supplies from the Middle East.

Energy consultancy Energy Aspects forecasts that Europe will face a deficit of 510,000 barrels per day during the fourth quarter. By comparison, the United States and Asia-Pacific are expected to post surpluses of 18,000 bpd and 419,000 bpd, respectively.

The supply disruptions have prompted European buyers to look farther afield for fuel, increasing purchases from Nigeria, the United States, Canada and, increasingly, South Korea.

According to Kpler data, European imports of jet fuel from South Korea reached about 129,000 barrels per day in September, the highest level since October 2022.

European fuel inventories are also facing pressure. Stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining and storage hub fell to their lowest level in seven years during the week ending September 10.

South Korean production has risen as refiners process larger volumes of crude. Jet-fuel output in the country reached almost 13.89 million barrels in July, a seven-year high, while exports climbed to their highest level in 3½ years.

The price gap between Asian and European fuel markets has also made deliveries to Europe more appealing for traders.

European diesel prices have reached record levels as well, increasing costs for airlines, transport companies and other businesses reliant on refined fuels.

With Europe expected to remain short of jet fuel, analysts anticipate that imports will continue as traders seek additional supplies from alternative markets.

Original article