Americans who rely on heating oil are projected to pay 31.3% more this winter as disruptions tied to the Iran war keep crude prices elevated, while average home-heating expenses across all fuel types are expected to rise 8.7%.

By yourNEWS Media Newsroom.

Americans who heat their homes with oil are facing a potentially steep increase in winter expenses, with a new national forecast projecting costs will jump 31.3% from last season as the Iran war continues to disrupt global energy supplies.

The National Energy Assistance Directors Association estimates the average U.S. household will spend $1,030 to heat its home during the coming winter, an increase of $82, or 8.7%, from last year, according to figures reported by ABC News.

That increase is more than 2.5 times the rate of inflation, according to NEADA.

Heating-oil customers face by far the largest projected increase.

NEADA expects households using heating oil, which is concentrated heavily in the Northeast, to spend 31.3% more this winter. Households heating with electricity are projected to pay 9% more, propane customers 8.7% more and natural-gas customers 5.8% more.

“This is a warning that too many families are entering winter with no room left in their budgets,” NEADA Executive Director Mark Wolfe said.

The outlook could have been worse without the El Niño weather pattern, which forecasters expect to contribute to warmer winter conditions and reduce some heating demand. Even with that potential weather-related relief, NEADA’s forecast shows higher costs across all major home-heating fuels.

The most severe pressure is falling on heating oil because its price is closely linked to global crude markets, which have remained elevated amid the war with Iran and restrictions on oil movements through the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict began Feb. 28 with a joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. Iran responded militarily and sharply disrupted tanker traffic through Hormuz, a waterway that normally handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments.

Oil that traded at approximately $72 a barrel before the conflict remained above $100 late this week. Brent crude closed Friday at $104.87 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled at $100.30 as traders continued to weigh supply disruptions and instability across the Middle East.

Traffic through Hormuz also remained far below normal levels late this week. Preliminary shipping data showed only four commodity vessels passing through the strait Thursday, compared with a 10-day average of 16.

The consequences are becoming especially pronounced in states where home heating oil remains common.

Maine’s average residential heating-oil price reached $5.77 per gallon as of Sept. 14, according to the Maine Department of Energy Resources. The statewide survey found prices ranging from $5 to $6.30 per gallon depending on location and supplier.

The $5.77 statewide average was 74% higher than a year earlier, according to ABC News. At that price, filling a standard 275-gallon residential tank costs nearly $675 more than it did a year ago.

For organizations that help lower-income households obtain heating fuel, the price increase is already changing preparations for winter.

Alicia Fasulo, who runs heating assistance at The Opportunity Alliance, a nonprofit serving southern Maine, said families seeking aid are confronting difficult choices as fuel becomes more expensive.

“The cost of fuel has never been this high since I started with the heat program seven years ago,” Fasulo said.

She said households routinely must decide among essential expenses during winter as heating consumes a larger portion of limited budgets.

The federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP, is the primary federal program helping eligible low-income households with heating and cooling expenses. It receives approximately $4 billion annually, but assistance reaches only about one in five households eligible for the program, according to David Konisky, an Indiana University political science professor and co-director of the university’s Energy Justice Lab.

“There is much more demand than there are resources to fill that demand,” Konisky said.

NEADA is calling for LIHEAP funding to rise to $7 billion as energy costs place greater pressure on lower-income households. The organization has argued that expanded funding is necessary to address both winter heating bills and growing summer cooling expenses.

“Congress cannot wait for the first cold snap,” Wolfe said.

The association has warned throughout 2026 that household energy affordability is deteriorating. About one in six U.S. households is behind on utility bills, according to NEADA, which has also projected total utility debt could reach approximately $25 billion by the end of the year.

Rising crude prices are not limited to household heating costs.

Drivers are also seeing the consequences at gasoline and diesel pumps.

AAA reported a national average of approximately $4.48 for a gallon of regular gasoline on Sept. 19, up from about $3.20 a year earlier. Diesel reached approximately $6.49 per gallon, which AAA listed as the highest national average diesel price in its records.

AAA said crude oil had been averaging around $100 per barrel as continued volatility around the Strait of Hormuz pushed pump prices higher. Regular gasoline had climbed roughly 16 cents in a week as of Sept. 17.

The same market forces are feeding directly into the heating-oil outlook because heating oil and diesel are both distillate fuels whose costs respond strongly to crude prices and refining conditions.

That leaves households dependent on oil heat particularly exposed if crude remains above $100 or supply disruptions worsen during the colder months.

The precise amount families ultimately spend will depend on both energy prices and temperatures. A warmer winter could reduce fuel consumption, while a colder period or another disruption to global crude supplies could increase expenses beyond current projections.

El Niño offers one source of potential relief, but NEADA’s forecast already incorporates expectations for warmer conditions and still projects a 31.3% increase for heating-oil households.

The scale of the increase is particularly significant in the Northeast, where heating oil remains far more common than elsewhere in the country.

For families already managing higher gasoline, food, electricity and other household expenses, Konisky said the heating season could require difficult adjustments.

“Families will have to figure out how to balance the essential needs they have,” he said.

With crude prices remaining above $100, Hormuz traffic still disrupted and winter approaching, the cost of keeping homes warm is becoming another significant household consequence of the continuing Iran conflict.

Original article