By Lisa Haven
Something is happening in the world right now that everybody needs to be aware of, because we are seeing things that we have not seen in years. In fact, in some cases, we haven’t seen things like this since COVID-19.
I’m talking about rationing. I’m talking about purchase limits. I’m talking about shortages, soaring fuel costs and now, because of all of that, protests breaking out in the streets.
And I’m not talking about this being an isolated event happening in one country. I’m talking about this happening in multiple countries around the world.
Even here in the United States, we’re beginning to see some very weird warning signs showing up at some of our major retailers. So please do not think that we are exempt.
We have seen these patterns before. We actually went through something similar in the 1970s, and what happened back then could very well happen again if things continue to progress the way they are now.
So let’s start with what on earth is going on.
The New York Times recently reported on rising fuel prices setting off anger and protests across the globe, from Indonesia to Guatemala to Syria. Shortages and price increases are leading to protests, blackouts, rationing and serious economic consequences.
In Indonesia, residents have reported shortages of cooking gas, rolling blackouts and a sudden move toward gasoline rationing. Taxi drivers even held a protest against a new rationing system organized around odd and even license plate numbers.
That particular detail is interesting, because something very similar was once implemented right here in the United States.
Then there’s Bangladesh.
Bangladesh imports more than 90% of the petroleum it uses, much of it coming from the Middle East. Shortages in the liquefied natural gas needed to produce electricity have reportedly led to rationing and the temporary closure of garment factories, one of the main engines of the country’s economy. Many had already turned to diesel after the war involving Iran began, only to see diesel prices rising as well.
So here we already have shortages and rationing happening in separate countries.
But those are not the only countries dealing with this.
In the Philippines, a large number of fishermen are staying put because they are being priced out by the cost of oil and gas. They simply cannot afford to operate the way they normally would.
Bus and rideshare drivers have also been protesting, including demonstrations in which some drivers simply stopped working.
Something similar has been happening in Vietnam, where drivers using ride-hailing apps have called for boycotts to protest low pay that has been made worse, in part, by rising fuel costs.
Then there’s Guatemala.
Transportation workers and Indigenous activists recently marched through the streets of Guatemala City demanding more than temporary measures such as price caps and subsidies. In another protest south of the capital, videos reportedly showed cars being set on fire in the streets.
People are getting upset.
Portugal has also seen demonstrations organized largely through social media. Drivers gathered for protests involving cars traveling slowly while honking, creating traffic jams across several key areas.
In Sri Lanka, the government sets fuel prices each month, but fuel distributors supplying gas stations have reportedly begun restricting supply as they wait for expected price increases.
Then there is Syria.
Just hours after the government announced that it would temporarily raise prices for gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products by as much as 40%, Syrians took to the streets. Crowds gathered in several cities, blocked traffic and set tires on fire while calling for the price increases to be canceled.
And there is more.
Newsweek recently published a list of countries now rationing fuel as gas prices surge. Among the countries mentioned were Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Cambodia, Slovenia, Bangladesh and Indonesia.
When you tie all of this together, we have oil prices surging and diesel prices climbing dramatically as well.
And here is the kicker.
A lot of us tend to think, “We’re in America. We’re exempt.”
We know the United States does not rely on fuel moving through the Strait of Hormuz to the same extent as some other countries, but there are also concerns surrounding Saudi Arabia and reports about oil infrastructure and refineries there.
There has been a lot of talk online about whether certain Saudi facilities have experienced serious operational problems, whether they are closed and whether some of the more dramatic rumors circulating online are actually true.
I want to be very clear here: there are rumors circulating about some of these facilities, and whether every one of those claims is accurate is something we simply do not know yet.
But if some of the worst-case reports eventually prove true, it could add even more pressure to an already stressed global oil market.
And yes, under the right circumstances, we could see rationing and shortages here in the United States again.
We saw supply disruptions during COVID. But America has also dealt with a major oil crisis before.
In 1973 and 1974, the United States went through an oil crisis that became so serious that the federal government actually had gasoline rationing coupons printed.
Those coupons still exist today. You can see them through the Smithsonian’s National Postal Museum.
Nearly five billion gasoline rationing coupons were produced in response to the 1973–1974 gasoline shortage at the direction of the Federal Energy Office.
National gasoline rationing ultimately never happened, and the coupons were never used.
But they were ready.
On October 18, 1973, Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries stopped the flow of oil to the United States in response to American support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War involving Israel, Egypt and Syria.
Prior to that, the United States, like other industrialized nations, had become accustomed to cheap and abundant gasoline.
A gallon of gasoline back then was around 35 cents.
Think about how far we’ve come.
After the embargo began, gasoline prices rose and supplies became uncertain. Long lines formed at service stations. In some cases, the service stations themselves could not acquire enough gasoline.
Gas theft, including people siphoning fuel out of other vehicles, became a problem.
And these are the kinds of things that could happen again during a truly severe shortage.
To restore order, state governments in some of the areas most affected by the shortage implemented a simple form of rationing.
Drivers whose license plates ended in odd numbers could purchase gasoline on odd-numbered days of the month. Drivers whose plates ended in even numbers could purchase gasoline on even-numbered days.
Sound familiar?
That system helped, but the shortage continued to worsen.
Eventually, the federal government proposed nationwide gasoline rationing similar to what the United States had used during World War II.
On December 28, 1973, William E. Simon, the head of the Federal Energy Office, announced that the Bureau of Engraving and Printing would produce gasoline rationing coupons.
Ultimately, the embargo ended in March 1974 as the conflict in the Middle East moved toward negotiations. The gasoline shortage eased and the coupons were no longer needed.
But the point is this: fuel rationing is not something that could never happen in America.
It has happened before in different forms. It happened during World War II. It nearly became a nationwide reality again during the 1973–1974 oil crisis. We even have the coupons sitting in the Smithsonian to prove how seriously the government was preparing for it.
So what is happening inside the United States right now?
One warning sign I have already reported on is Costco putting purchase limits on certain motor oil products as prices have been surging. That does not mean gasoline rationing has arrived in America, but purchase limits are something worth paying attention to, especially when we are already watching supply problems and price increases internationally.
There is also talk online about a possible trucker shutdown or strike on October 1.
I have seen these claims circulating on Facebook, and because my brother is actually a trucker, this is something that immediately caught my attention.
Posts circulating online claim that truckers around the country are discussing a truck-stop-style shutdown because of dramatically higher diesel prices.
Again, this is something being discussed online and should not automatically be treated as confirmation that a nationwide trucker shutdown is definitely going to happen.
But the consequences of anything that significantly reduces trucking would be obvious.
If trucks are not moving, products are not getting delivered to stores, gas stations and distribution centers.
And beyond shortages, higher fuel prices are already changing the way Americans spend their money.
Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos has talked about the impact higher gasoline prices have on consumers.
According to Vasos, whenever gasoline gets close to or rises above $4 a gallon, Dollar General’s core customer starts changing shopping behavior. People stay closer to home, shop more frequently, but buy less during each trip.
What is particularly interesting is what he said about middle- and upper-middle-income consumers.
After years of inflation and other economic pressures, even middle- and upper-middle-income shoppers are beginning to behave more like lower-income consumers. Even households earning $100,000 or more are changing the way they shop.
That is because people are hurting.
And this brings me back to the bigger picture.
What is happening internationally could happen here.
It has happened here before.
The United States is not magically exempt from what is happening in the global energy market.
We have already watched shortages and supply problems unfold during COVID. We have lived through energy crises before. And right now, countries around the world are dealing with rationing, fuel shortages, skyrocketing prices, demonstrations and economic disruptions. Then there are the questions surrounding Saudi Arabia.
We know there have been reports involving attacks and problems affecting energy infrastructure. There are also rumors circulating online claiming that some facilities, including the YASREF refinery, have suffered much more extensive damage. Whether those more extreme claims are true, I do not know.
But if they were confirmed, that could create even greater problems for the global fuel market and potentially affect us here in the United States as well.
So what do we do? I think we simply have to be ready in the event that conditions get worse. That does not mean panic. It means planning. Plan for potentially higher gasoline prices. Plan for the possibility of purchase limits or other disruptions if global supply conditions continue deteriorating. And because oil and diesel are connected to virtually everything we purchase, from transportation to agriculture to shipping, higher fuel costs can eventually work their way through the food supply and almost every other part of the economy.
It may not hurt to have a little extra food and basic necessities on hand. I do anyway because I’m a prepper, and I know a lot of you are as well. Hopefully none of the worst-case scenarios happen. But there is a lot going on right now, and history has already shown us that America is not immune from fuel shortages, price shocks or even rationing. The warning signs are worth watching. And right now, they are showing up all over the world.
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