Vice President JD Vance said the U.S.-Iran conflict is expected to enter a different phase within months as Washington moves from degrading Iranian capabilities toward preventing Tehran from rebuilding them.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Vice President JD Vance said the conflict with Iran is expected to change substantially within the next several months, describing a transition from large-scale efforts to destroy Tehran’s nuclear and conventional military capabilities toward preventing Iran from rebuilding what it has lost.
“We can’t predict the future, but I think the president is right to say that this thing will enter a much different phase in a couple of months,” Vance told the New York Post in an interview published Tuesday. “He’s also the commander in chief, so he’s the person who determines … when conflicts start and when they stop.”
Vance’s comments provided additional detail about how the Trump administration views the next stage of a conflict that began Feb. 28 and has continued through airstrikes, a naval blockade, attacks on U.S. warships and efforts to restore commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The vice president described the administration’s strategy as consisting of two distinct phases.
The first, he said, has centered on degrading Iran’s nuclear program, conventional armed forces and ability to project military power beyond its borders. The next phase would focus on making it difficult for Tehran to restore those capabilities.
“And then the second phase of this is ensure that they’re not able to rebuild and try to maintain as much global stability in the wake of that,” Vance said.
His description follows President Donald Trump’s statement last week that he expects the conflict to end after the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
“I think the war will end immediately after the election because they can’t hold out any longer,” Trump said.
Trump made that prediction Sept. 9, while Vance stopped short of giving a definite ending date and emphasized that decisions about the duration of military operations remain with the president. Reporting on Vance’s interview said he characterized the coming period as a new phase rather than offering a guarantee about when hostilities would cease.
Vance also sought to distinguish the current level of American military activity from the sustained offensive operations that marked earlier stages of the conflict.
“I certainly understand there’s some impatience from the American people, but fundamentally what’s happening right now is that the United States is not engaged in aggressive operations,” he said. “We’re just not.”
U.S. forces, however, have continued striking Iranian assets following attacks that U.S. Central Command says were directed at American naval vessels.
On Sept. 8, CENTCOM reported that U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over two days.
According to CENTCOM, the American vessel evaded both attacks and continued patrolling regional waters. No U.S. personnel were injured. American forces subsequently struck five tankers that CENTCOM identified as part of an oil network supporting the Revolutionary Guard and its regional activities.
That confrontation followed another exchange three days earlier.
On Sept. 5, CENTCOM said the Revolutionary Guard launched ballistic missiles toward a U.S. aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer. Both American warships avoided the attacks, and no U.S. personnel were harmed.
U.S. forces responded by striking three Iranian crude oil carriers. CENTCOM said two vessels were permanently disabled and a third was destroyed after its crew was instructed to abandon ship.
Those episodes illustrate the distinction Vance drew between sustained U.S. offensive operations and military responses to Iranian attacks. Although large-scale American strikes have declined from their earlier pace, U.S. forces continue to respond when American ships or personnel are targeted.
Maritime security remains a major part of the conflict because of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping route linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and one of the world’s most important passages for energy exports.
Vance said commercial shipping through the strait has recovered to “well over 50% of normal traffic,” although crossings remain below the levels recorded before hostilities began.
Efforts to stabilize shipping followed an earlier attempt by Washington and Tehran to temporarily halt major hostilities.
The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June that established a 60-day framework for negotiations, provided for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and temporarily suspended the U.S. naval blockade while the two sides pursued a broader agreement. The arrangement later broke down amid renewed hostilities.
CENTCOM announced in July that American forces would resume the blockade of maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports beginning July 14.
The renewed operation covers vessels traveling to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas while allowing other commercial traffic through regional waters. CENTCOM said the previous blockade, conducted from April 13 through June 18, had redirected more than 140 vessels, disabled nine ships that did not comply and permitted more than 50 vessels carrying humanitarian supplies to pass.
The fighting itself began Feb. 28, when the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iranian leadership, military infrastructure and nuclear-related capabilities.
An April 1 CENTCOM fact sheet said U.S. forces had already struck more than 12,300 targets and damaged or destroyed more than 155 Iranian vessels during Operation Epic Fury. CENTCOM also reported more than 13,000 combat flights by that point.
Targets identified by the command included Iranian command-and-control centers, Revolutionary Guard headquarters and intelligence facilities, integrated air defenses, ballistic missile sites, Iranian naval vessels and submarines, anti-ship missile positions, military communications infrastructure, ballistic missile and drone production facilities, weapons storage bunkers and surface-to-air missile installations.
The operation has employed a wide range of U.S. military assets, including B-1, B-2 and B-52 bombers; F-15, F-16, F/A-18, F-22 and F-35 aircraft; A-10 attack jets; surveillance and electronic warfare aircraft; drones; aircraft carriers; submarines; guided-missile destroyers; and missile-defense systems, according to CENTCOM.
Trump has repeatedly described Iran’s navy and air force as having been effectively eliminated during the campaign. Vance’s description of the administration’s strategy suggests Washington now sees preventing those capabilities from being restored as a central objective.
That does not mean military activity has stopped.
The September exchanges involving U.S. warships and Iranian tankers demonstrate that direct confrontations continue, while the naval blockade remains in effect and American forces remain positioned throughout the region.
What Vance described instead is a change in emphasis: from destroying existing Iranian military and nuclear capabilities to limiting Tehran’s ability to rebuild them while seeking greater stability in the region.
That transition, he said, could become apparent within months, although he emphasized that the timing and ultimate end of the conflict will be determined by Trump as commander in chief.
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