By Lisa Haven
Well, JD Vance and Marco Rubio have reportedly just confronted President Donald Trump behind closed doors, and it has an awful lot of people asking the same question: What the hell do they know that we don’t? And why do I get the feeling that President Trump may be a little bit trapped by all of this? According to new reporting, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have privately warned Trump that the war with Iran could drag on far longer than the president has publicly suggested — potentially lasting through the remainder of his presidency and all the way to Inauguration Day in January 2029. That is a massive difference from what Trump himself is telling the American people.
Trump recently said he believes the war could end “immediately” after the midterm elections because, in his view, Iran simply cannot hold out much longer. His argument is that Tehran is desperately trying to influence the election, hoping Democrats take control of Congress and put the United States in a weaker negotiating position. Maybe Trump is right. I certainly hope he is. But when you look at everything happening on the ground right now, I’m not convinced this thing is wrapping up anytime soon.
Before getting into that, Trump also dropped another bombshell: a proposed $5,000 dividend for American adults if Republicans win both the House and Senate. I mean, I say a big fat amen to that. Why not give $5,000 back to American citizens? Obviously, that is going to cost a pretty penny, and Congress would ultimately have to approve something of that magnitude. Whether Americans ever actually receive those checks is another question entirely. But here’s my take. Every election cycle, Democrats campaign on government programs involving health care, housing, education and countless other benefits. Trump appears to have decided to pick something out of that political playbook and say, essentially, “If we win, Americans are getting $5,000.” Will it actually happen? I highly doubt it will be that simple. But politically, I understand exactly what he is doing.
Now let’s get back to Iran, because this is where things get very serious. While Trump is publicly predicting that the war could end shortly after the midterms, Iran appears to be continuing work on its nuclear infrastructure. New satellite imagery analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies reportedly shows a surge in construction at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain site near the Natanz nuclear complex, roughly 140 miles south of Tehran. The deeply buried underground facility has long raised questions among intelligence officials about whether Iran intends to use it to protect parts of its future nuclear program. According to the analysis, construction activity has noticeably increased over the past year. There are also concerns that Iran could eventually move centrifuges into the facility as part of a uranium enrichment effort.
Trump has already threatened the possibility of striking Pickaxe Mountain, reportedly telling journalists, “We may hit Pickaxe very soon.” But hitting something buried underneath a granite mountain is obviously not easy. Even some of America’s strongest conventional bunker-busting weapons could face serious challenges penetrating a facility built that deeply underground, and reports have suggested the United States is examining “alternative means.” So think about where we are. Trump says the war could soon end. Iran is continuing construction around a suspected nuclear facility. Military attacks are still being exchanged. Oil prices are climbing. And now some of Trump’s own closest advisers are apparently warning him that this could continue for years.
American forces recently struck five oil tankers linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps following attempted Iranian attacks on U.S. warships. Brent crude climbed toward $100 per barrel as tensions intensified. Iran then retaliated. Iranian strikes on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan damaged multiple American military aircraft. Roughly eight F-15s reportedly suffered light damage, while an A-10 Warthog took a much more serious hit and was reportedly left missing a wing. Think about the amount of money being burned through on both sides of this conflict. The United States fired dozens of Patriot interceptors attempting to stop Iranian attacks, and those systems are extraordinarily expensive. One of Iran’s objectives, in my opinion, may be to force the United States to continually burn through expensive defensive weapons, equipment and resources.
But America has another card to play: economic pressure. Iran is under enormous financial strain, and the United States continues attempting to squeeze Tehran through sanctions, restrictions and pressure on its oil revenues. I do not buy the argument being pushed in some corners that Iran is somehow clearly “winning” this war. I don’t believe they are. In fact, Iran has now publicly laid out conditions under which the conflict could end. Those demands reportedly include an end to attacks on Iran, Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, an end to the blockade of Yemen, the release of roughly $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets and guarantees concerning Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. I don’t see Trump simply agreeing to all of that, and I think we all know where Israel stands.
Which brings us back to the private warning from Vance and Rubio. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s top advisers have been confronting the possibility that Iran could continue resisting American economic and military pressure right up until January 2029. Vance and Rubio reportedly presented their assessment to Trump during recent meetings in the Oval Office and Situation Room. In other words, while Trump is publicly talking about this potentially ending after the midterms, two of the most powerful people in his administration are apparently telling him this thing could last for the rest of his presidency. And that raises another question: Why would Iran want to end it now?
Here is where I want to be extremely clear: what follows is my opinion. I have not proven this, and I am not presenting it as fact. I believe there is at least a possibility that Iran sees political advantage in waiting Trump out. If Tehran believes the political landscape in Washington could dramatically change after the midterms — or certainly after the next presidential election — why wouldn’t Iranian leaders consider dragging this out in hopes of negotiating with someone they believe will give them a better deal? Could political operatives inside the United States be encouraging them to hold the line? Could Iran believe that making this war more expensive, more unpopular and more painful for Americans damages Trump politically? I don’t know. I can’t prove that. But I think those are questions worth asking.
The bigger question is whether Iran can actually survive economically and militarily long enough to play that game. That is where Vance and Rubio’s warning becomes so important. Iran may want to wait Trump out, but can it really withstand more than two additional years of sanctions, economic pressure, military strikes and continued isolation? I’m not convinced it can. At the same time, I’m also not convinced this war is going to magically disappear after the midterm elections. There are still missiles flying. American military assets are being targeted. Iranian infrastructure is being hit. Oil prices are rising. Nuclear facilities remain at the center of the confrontation. Israel has its own objectives. And now Trump’s own advisers are reportedly preparing him for the possibility of a much longer conflict.
Maybe Trump knows something we don’t. Maybe Vance and Rubio are preparing him for the worst-case scenario. Or maybe Iran really does believe it can drag this thing out long enough to change the political equation inside the United States. But if that private warning is accurate, one thing is clear: behind closed doors, some of the most powerful people in the Trump administration are apparently preparing for a very different future than the quick ending Trump is publicly predicting. And that should have all of us asking what comes next.
Original article


Comments