People 65 and older now outnumber children age 5 and younger worldwide for the first time, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, as falling birth rates and longer lives accelerate an aging shift that is particularly advanced in Europe.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
The world crossed a historic demographic threshold in 2025 as people age 65 and older surpassed children age 5 and younger for the first time, according to a new U.S. Census Bureau analysis showing that falling fertility and longer life expectancy are rapidly reshaping the global population.
Adults 65 and older accounted for 10.5% of the world’s population in 2025, the Census Bureau reported in “An Aging World: 2025,” marking a fundamental reversal in the age structure that characterized most of human history.
The shift is expected to become far more pronounced during the coming decades.
By 2060, nearly one in five people worldwide — 19.6% — is projected to be at least 65 years old. Although the total global population is expected to increase by more than 2 billion over that period, approximately 1.15 billion of that growth will come from the expanding population of older adults.
Europe is already considerably further along in the transition.
About 21% of the continent’s population is 65 or older today, and that proportion is projected to approach 31% by 2060. The change is occurring as European countries record some of the lowest fertility rates in the world and confront a continuing decline in births.
Only 3.55 million babies were born in the European Union in 2024, down nearly 48% from the 6.8 million births recorded in 1964.
The EU fertility rate has fallen to a record 1.34 children per woman, well below the level generally required for a population to replace itself without migration.
The Census Bureau said prolonged fertility below replacement level can eventually become self-reinforcing because smaller generations produce fewer potential parents.
The report refers to that dynamic as a “fertility trap.”
Even if people within a smaller generation eventually decide to have more children individually, there may be too few prospective parents to return the total number of births to earlier levels.
The global birth count has already declined from its peak.
Approximately 132 million babies are now born worldwide each year, according to United Nations data, compared with about 142 million annually during the early 2010s.
Those births are also becoming increasingly concentrated geographically.
Africa accounted for approximately 47 million births in 2024, meaning the continent produced more than one-third of all babies born worldwide while Europe and several other developed regions experienced historically low fertility.
The combination of fewer births and longer survival is altering the balance between generations from both directions.
Medical advances, improved living standards and declining mortality have allowed more people to reach older ages, while smaller families have reduced the number of children entering the population.
The result is not simply a larger elderly population but a changing ratio between retirees and the working-age people expected to support public pension, healthcare and welfare systems.
That transformation carries significant financial consequences for governments.
Across countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, increased public healthcare spending during the coming decade is projected to equal approximately 2.6% of gross domestic product, according to the Census report.
Projected government revenue growth during the same period amounts to approximately 1.3% of GDP — only half the expected increase in healthcare expenditures.
Population aging can compound that imbalance because governments simultaneously face higher pension and medical costs while growth in the number of workers and taxpayers slows or reverses.
European governments are confronting those pressures at the same time they are sharply increasing military expenditures.
EU defense spending is projected to reach €454 billion this year, approximately 75% higher than in 2021, as European governments expand their armed forces and military capabilities in response to what they describe as a growing security threat from Russia.
That buildup creates another major claim on national budgets already facing structural pressure from aging populations.
The OECD warned in June that governments would increasingly face “tough choices” about how to divide limited resources among defense, pensions, healthcare, welfare programs and other priorities.
The fiscal challenge is particularly acute for governments already carrying large public-debt burdens, including Belgium, France, Italy and the United Kingdom.
Those competing demands are beginning to produce concrete policy changes across Europe.
Belgium has tightened rules governing pensions and welfare benefits as officials attempt to contain long-term government spending.
Germany, meanwhile, is taking on additional debt as it expands military expenditures, placing defense investment alongside the country’s other major fiscal commitments.
France has sought to restrain portions of non-defense government spending as military requirements increase.
Britain is confronting the same tradeoffs.
The Conservative Party this week proposed reductions in welfare spending to finance an additional £10 billion, or approximately $13.5 billion, in annual defense expenditures.
The proposal includes reductions in housing support and restoration of a cap on child benefits.
Those choices illustrate the broader budgetary problem identified by demographic projections: governments are being asked to support an increasingly elderly population at the same time they face demands for substantially greater spending in other areas.
Unlike a temporary economic downturn, the aging trend is the result of demographic changes accumulated over decades and is expected to continue well into the future.
The consequences extend beyond government budgets.
A declining proportion of younger people can affect labor-force growth, economic expansion, housing demand, education systems and the ability of businesses to replace retiring workers.
Countries with especially low birth rates may increasingly confront shortages of working-age adults unless productivity rises, people remain in the workforce longer or population losses are offset through migration.
The magnitude of the shift becomes particularly clear when comparing the world’s projected population growth with the expansion of its elderly population.
The global population is expected to add more than 2 billion people by 2060, yet the number of people 65 and older alone is projected to increase by approximately 1.15 billion.
That means older adults will account for a substantial share of humanity’s net population growth during the next several decades.
Europe represents the leading edge of that transformation, but the Census Bureau’s findings show it is becoming a worldwide phenomenon.
In 2025, adults 65 and older accounted for 10.5% of humanity and, for the first time, exceeded the number of young children.
By 2060, their projected share will be nearly twice as large.
The demographic crossover therefore represents more than a symbolic milestone. It signals a long-term restructuring of the world’s population in which longer life expectancy, fewer births and shrinking younger generations are shifting economic and social responsibilities toward supporting an unprecedented number of older people.
Original article
Comments