Alternative for Germany more than doubled its 2021 support to dominate Sunday’s Saxony-Anhalt election, but the party may still be unable to form a government if it falls short of an outright parliamentary majority.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Alternative for Germany scored its strongest state-election result in party history Sunday, decisively winning Saxony-Anhalt with more than 44% of the vote while leaving unresolved whether the anti-migration party will actually be able to take control of the state government.
An initial Infratest Dimap projection for public broadcaster ARD put the AfD at 44.5%, compared with just 18.5% for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union, according to Die Welt. Later projections remained close to those figures as counting continued.
The result more than doubles the AfD’s 20.8% showing in Saxony-Anhalt in 2021 and represents a dramatic reversal for the CDU, which won 37.1% five years ago and has governed the state since 2002.
AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund called the result “historic” and again invited the CDU to reconsider Germany’s longstanding political “firewall,” under which established parties refuse to cooperate with the AfD.
“As a democrat, I will always extend my hand to all forces that will help us achieve a political turnaround,” Siegmund said.
Whether that invitation matters will depend on the final distribution of seats. The AfD appears likely to fall short of an absolute parliamentary majority because several smaller parties are projected to clear Germany’s 5% threshold for representation. Die Linke was projected at approximately 9.5%, the Greens at 9%, the Social Democratic Party at 8% and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, at about 5%. Because BSW is sitting directly on the threshold, even a small movement in the final count could significantly change the parliamentary arithmetic.
Die Linke traces its organizational lineage through the Party of Democratic Socialism to the Socialist Unity Party, which ruled communist East Germany. The presence of several parties to the left of the CDU could leave enough seats outside the AfD to construct an alternative governing arrangement despite the AfD’s commanding first-place finish.
Siegmund has previously said he wants the AfD to govern alone rather than join a coalition with parties he blames for Germany’s problems. If the party cannot secure more than half the seats, the CDU could attempt to remain in government through a coalition or minority administration backed by parties to its left.
Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President Sven Schulze acknowledged the scale of the CDU’s defeat Sunday while stopping short of discussing specific coalition arrangements.
“I think it’s clear that we would all have wished for a better result in every respect,” Schulze said. “We, as the CDU, will also have to deal with this result.”
“Some say this would be a black day for Saxony-Anhalt. I say: This is democracy,” he added.
The CDU has consistently rejected a coalition with the AfD, leaving a minority government as one possible outcome if no conventional coalition can command a majority. Such an arrangement could potentially involve the CDU and SPD governing with outside tolerance from another party, similar to political arrangements previously used elsewhere in eastern Germany.
The result nevertheless marks a major milestone for the AfD, which has expanded rapidly from an insurgent opposition party into Germany’s second-largest force at the federal level. It won 20.8% nationally in the February 2025 Bundestag election and has built especially strong support in the former East Germany.
The party campaigned in Saxony-Anhalt on stricter migration controls, changes to education and cultural policy, reforms to public broadcasting and a broader rejection of policies associated with Germany’s governing establishment. The state AfD organization has also faced scrutiny from domestic intelligence authorities over extremist elements and positions, accusations the party disputes.
Sunday’s result immediately drew praise from allied populist figures elsewhere in Europe.
Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said the outcome was a “resounding success that highlights the strong demand for change, security, and jobs. In the face of those on the left who stoked fears and catastrophic scenarios.”
“Fear? Terror? Danger? No, it’s called DEMOCRACY. Another Europe is possible.”
Former French presidential candidate Eric Zemmour also celebrated the result, arguing that political efforts to isolate parties such as the AfD had failed.
“Voters will be blamed. The real culprits are those who, for half a century, treated as a crime what peoples felt as an obvious truth: the desire to remain oneself.
“The cordon sanitaire has never protected anyone. It has only delayed the hour of truth. That hour has come. And it will toll everywhere.”
The AfD’s victory therefore gives the party an electoral breakthrough but not yet control of Saxony-Anhalt. Under Germany’s proportional system, winning the most votes does not automatically produce a government, and the final seat distribution will determine whether Siegmund can command a majority.
If the AfD falls short and the CDU maintains its refusal to cooperate, Saxony-Anhalt could enter weeks of negotiations as rival parties attempt to construct a government capable of surviving in parliament.
Whatever coalition arrangement eventually emerges, Sunday’s result represents a major shift in German politics: the AfD has moved from a 20.8% state party in 2021 to more than 44% five years later, while the CDU has lost roughly half of its support.
The remaining question is whether that electoral victory will also become the AfD’s first opportunity to govern a German state.
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