Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be preparing for a new escalation of the war in Ukraine, with Moscow reportedly considering hundreds of thousands of additional troops and a major attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite growing pressure inside Russia and concern across NATO.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears increasingly determined to intensify the war in Ukraine rather than seek an exit from the nearly five-year conflict, despite mounting casualties, Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia and signs of growing unease among both the Russian public and political elite.
An analysis by The Economist described Putin as having spent several weeks this summer considering his options before moving toward further escalation.
People close to the Kremlin told the magazine that Putin ultimately appears to have decided against pulling back, even though Russia has not achieved the decisive military victory originally sought in Ukraine.
That posture was reflected Friday when Putin spoke to students and staff at a Moscow university and used an analogy from the animal kingdom to explain international power struggles and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“That’s the food chain,” Putin said after asserting that orcas eat polar bears. “Children should be taught about this, so that they understand what kind of world we live in and why we are conducting the special military operation.”
The Economist noted that there are no known documented cases of orcas eating polar bears.
Putin’s comments came as Ukraine has become increasingly successful at using long-range drones to strike important facilities inside Russia, including oil refineries, logistics hubs and other infrastructure supporting the Russian economy and war effort.
The attacks have drawn increasingly explicit threats from Moscow.
On Aug. 22, Putin accused Ukraine of opening a “Pandora’s box” and warned of “blowback on the most sensitive sectors of your economy.”
He also rejected suggestions the fighting could soon end.
“The special military operation continues,” Putin told members of his United Russia party that same day. “We will move only forward.”
The statements suggest Putin remains committed to pursuing his military objectives despite battlefield losses and an increasingly costly conflict that is approaching its fifth anniversary.
Russian officials are now preparing another major attack on Ukraine, according to the country’s Defense Ministry, which said Sunday that forces were readying a large-scale strike against Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Russian sources also told The Economist that the Kremlin is prepared to send an additional 300,000 to 400,000 troops into the war.
Rather than announce another nationwide mobilization, Moscow could rely on regional governments to substantially increase recruitment, allowing the Kremlin to expand its forces while attempting to limit the political consequences associated with another formal national call-up.
The possibility of another large infusion of troops comes as Russia continues absorbing significant battlefield casualties and struggling to achieve a decisive breakthrough.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has expanded its ability to attack targets far from the front lines.
The growing reach of Ukrainian drones has challenged Moscow’s ability to protect industrial and military infrastructure inside Russia and has created a new source of pressure on Putin’s government.
The prospect of a broader Russian escalation is also generating concern among NATO governments, which are monitoring whether Moscow could expand its pressure beyond Ukraine without deliberately triggering a direct war with the alliance.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a secret visit to Moscow on Aug. 25, although reports differ over the purpose of the trip.
One account indicated Ratcliffe traveled to warn Putin against taking military action against NATO countries. Another suggested he sought to push Moscow toward negotiations by presenting a pessimistic assessment of Russia’s long-term military prospects.
Ratcliffe’s unannounced Moscow trip occurred amid a series of security incidents that have heightened concerns among European governments bordering or confronting Russia.
Finland subsequently asked Sweden to provide aircraft and warships to assist in monitoring Finland’s border with Russia.
Germany is preparing to attribute an Aug. 4 drone attack at Leipzig airport to Moscow, according to The Economist.
Romania, meanwhile, said it destroyed a Russian naval drone that had been targeting a drilling platform inside Romanian waters.
Those incidents are contributing to a broader concern that Russia may increase pressure on countries supporting Ukraine without crossing the threshold into an overt conventional attack on NATO.
Western intelligence agencies reportedly assess that Putin does not want a direct military confrontation with NATO.
They are nevertheless concerned that Moscow could intensify sabotage, covert operations and other forms of hybrid warfare against Ukraine’s European supporters.
Factories involved in producing weapons and other military equipment for Kyiv could become potential targets, according to the report.
Such operations would allow Russia to increase the costs imposed on Ukraine’s allies while attempting to remain below the level that would trigger a collective NATO military response.
As European governments prepare for possible escalation, Putin is also facing growing evidence of strain inside Russia.
The Levada Centre, an independent Russian polling organization, found that 57% of Russians now describe conditions in the country as “tense.”
Respondents cited the war, battlefield casualties, mobilization, Ukrainian drone attacks and uncertainty about Russia’s future among the sources of concern, according to The Economist.
Frustration is reportedly spreading inside Russia’s elite as well.
After nearly five years of fighting, the Kremlin has yet to accomplish several of the central objectives associated with its invasion, while the financial, military and political costs continue accumulating.
That pressure could make ending the war more difficult for Putin rather than easier.
The Economist reported that Putin may believe accepting a settlement without capturing all of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region could threaten his political survival.
According to an insider cited by the magazine, Putin at one point described the stakes in highly personal terms.
“They will hang me,” Putin reportedly told associates during the war.
That reported fear could help explain why the Kremlin continues pursuing escalation despite the risks.
A negotiated end that falls significantly short of the territorial and political objectives Moscow established during the conflict could be portrayed domestically as a defeat after years of casualties and economic sacrifice.
Continuing the war, by contrast, allows Putin to maintain that Russia can still achieve those goals through additional military pressure.
The reported plan to recruit another 300,000 to 400,000 troops would represent a substantial commitment of manpower to that strategy.
At the same time, a major strike on Ukraine’s energy system could attempt to place additional pressure on the country’s civilian infrastructure and economy while Russian forces continue ground operations.
The next stage of the war may therefore involve simultaneous escalation on several fronts: additional Russian manpower, renewed attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, possible hybrid actions against European supporters of Kyiv and continued Ukrainian drone strikes against important targets inside Russia.
For NATO, the central challenge is determining how far Putin is prepared to push those measures without crossing into direct confrontation with the alliance.
For the Kremlin, the increasingly difficult question is how long Russia can sustain a costly war that has failed to produce a decisive victory while domestic concerns, battlefield losses and Ukrainian attacks inside Russian territory continue to grow.
Putin’s latest statements offer little indication that he intends to resolve that dilemma by retreating. His public message remains that Russian forces will “move only forward,” while reports from inside Moscow suggest the Kremlin is preparing the personnel and military operations necessary to make that escalation possible.
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