New analysis
The Japanese Defense Ministry published a white paper, titled “Defense of Japan 2026,” on Aug. 4, as released by Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi.
“Security is inextricably linked with the daily lives of every Japanese citizen and the future,” Koizumi said at a press conference.
A geopolitical analyst told Vision Times that this year’s white paper is focussed on Japan’s growing need to be prepared for the most adverse scenario highlighted by an increasingly difficult neighborhood, that is, the East Asian and Indo-Pacific region. It calls for enhanced focus on learning about emerging ways of warfare from recent global conflicts while also rapidly building its domestic defense manufacturing and exports.
“The Japanese government and the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) understand the currently evolving global geopolitical situation and how inter-state conflicts, both traditional and hybrid, are becoming more common. Therefore, Japan needs to be prepared for a worst-case scenario,” said Wilder Alejandro Sanchez, a Washington, D.C.-based geopolitical analyst specializing on defense issues and trade.
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Sanchez, who is with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that the paper doesn’t call for “drastic reforms” but it does clearly point out “troubling situations and actors (e.g. China)” that Tokyo needs to be adequately prepared to face.
“China’s external posture, military activities, and other activities are a matter of serious concern for Japan and the international community and present an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge which Japan should respond with its comprehensive national power and in cooperation and collaboration with its ally, like-minded countries, and others,” Chapter 3 of the White Paper (pdf) reads.
It also highlights how Beijing has intensified its activities around Taiwan as well as in the South China Sea.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) Foreign Ministry took issue with the content of the 2026 white paper, and lodged a protest with the Japanese government. A spokesperson for the ministry criticized Tokyo for “unwarranted comments” on Taiwan, Reuters reported on Aug. 5.
Sanchez said that he doesn’t believe that Beijing and Tokyo are on a collision course, as such tensions were existent in the past as well.
Focus on Japan’s domestic defense industry
Alejandro Sanchez said that the cabinet-approved white paper shows a growing interest to manufacture defense material domestically and reduce reliance on foreign exporters.
“In order to acquire defense equipment required to achieve uniquely Japanese new ways of defense based on the new ways of warfare, the use of our domestic technologies is extremely important,” the fourth section of “Defense of Japan 2026” reads.
The geopolitical analyst said the major development in Japan’s defense policy reflected in the White Paper is its growing focus on the domestic defense industry. In his foreword to the document, Koizumi described defense production and technological innovation as an indispensable component of “defense capability” itself.
“Focusing on domestic defense industries can have several positive effects: job creation, a boost to local economies, less reliance on foreign suppliers of military technology, better and faster communication between the armed forces and suppliers, and platforms and systems better tailored to the Japanese armed forces’ needs and requirements,” Alejandro Sanchez said, adding that Tokyo can increase its defense exports to nations in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
Sanchez noted that Japan and Australia signed a US$6.5 billion deal several months ago for three Mogami-class frigates to be sold to Australia, while Indonesia is also considering importing the warships from Japan. In this context, he said, Japan’s focus on its defense industry in the new White Paper makes sense given the potential revenue from such exports.
‘New ways of warfare’
In his foreword to the White Paper, Defense Minister Koizumi discussed the evolving security environment in the Indo-Pacific, where not only China but also North Korea is strengthening its military capabilities. At the same time, China and Russia, as well as Russia and North Korea, are expanding their military cooperation. According to Koizumi, these developments underscore the need for greater attention to “new ways of warfare.”
Koizumi said the White Paper addresses these developments by incorporating analysis from researchers at Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies.
“Drawing lessons from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, countries around the world are quickly preparing for ‘new ways of warfare,’ such as mass employment of unmanned assets, as well as getting ready for prolonged conflicts, bringing accelerated changes to the security environment in a wide range of domains,” Koizumi said.
Sanchez described Japan’s neighborhood as increasingly “difficult,” citing the country’s unresolved territorial dispute with Russia over the Kuril Islands — annexed by the Soviet Union following World War II — as well as continuing military threats from North Korea and China.
He also mentioned concerns involving the development of U.S. foreign policy.
“The evolving US foreign policy is concerning to many US allies, not only in Europe but also across the Asia-Pacific region. Hence, while the White Paper mentions China quite a lot, I am sure Tokyo kept other issues in mind when drafting this document, specifically Russia and North Korea,” he said.
Alejandro Sanchez said the document’s focus on “new ways of warfare” also implies an increased investment in new technologies like drones, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence. He said this was “not surprising,” as militaries and defense industries around the world are increasingly focused on developing these technologies in response to changing patterns of warfare.
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