By Anietie anii- bassey
Forecasters are increasingly monitoring a tropical wave in the Atlantic that could develop into a tropical depression or named storm later this week, while a separate disturbance in the central Pacific is expected to strengthen as it moves toward Hawaii.
The National Hurricane Center has continued to increase the likelihood that the Atlantic system will organize in the coming days. If it develops into a named storm, it would receive the name Cristobal, the next name on the Atlantic hurricane season list.
The tropical wave is an area of disturbed weather associated with a ripple in the atmosphere’s wind field roughly 10,000 feet above the surface. Meteorologists have been tracking the system for nearly two weeks as it gradually moves west-northwestward toward the eastern Caribbean.
Current forecasts indicate that the best opportunity for the system to organize will come from Thursday through the weekend. However, there remains considerable uncertainty about exactly how the disturbance will behave as it approaches the Caribbean.
Computer forecast models are divided over whether the system will remain relatively weak and continue westward into or near the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, or whether it could strengthen and turn northward before reaching the islands.
The more likely scenario at this point is for the system to remain weak while moving toward the eastern Caribbean late this weekend and early next week. Several forecast solutions show the disturbance passing near or across some of the easternmost Caribbean islands between Sunday and Monday.
A smaller number of forecast scenarios show the system taking a more northerly route over the Atlantic. Under that scenario, the disturbance could curve north of the Caribbean islands and remain over open water, where environmental conditions could allow it to strengthen.
Meteorologists are also watching the amount of wind shear across the Caribbean. Strong wind shear can disrupt developing tropical systems by separating thunderstorms from the circulation and making it difficult for a storm to become organized.
That hostile environment could make it particularly difficult for the disturbance to survive if it moves into the Caribbean. Even if the system manages to become a tropical depression or named storm before reaching the islands, forecasters say it could struggle to maintain its strength afterward.
For now, residents across the easternmost Caribbean, particularly those from Martinique and Dominica northward toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, are being encouraged to monitor the forecast. The primary concern at this stage may be locally heavy rainfall rather than a major wind threat.
There is currently no indication from the major global forecast models that the system will undergo significant strengthening this week. Forecasters say the disturbance faces several environmental obstacles that would need to be overcome before it could become a stronger tropical cyclone.
Adding to the uncertainty, an artificial intelligence-based forecasting system has recently reduced its projected chances of development. The latest forecasts from the system put the probability of the disturbance becoming a tropical system east of the Caribbean at roughly 20% to 30%.
The changing forecasts underscore the uncertainty surrounding the disturbance and the importance of monitoring its progress rather than focusing on any single model prediction.
At this point, the system is not considered a significant threat to the mainland United States. Forecasters expect several environmental factors to limit its development, particularly if it moves into the Caribbean.
Meanwhile, attention is also turning toward the central Pacific, where another tropical disturbance could pose a more immediate concern for Hawaii.
A system designated Invest 93C is located approximately 1,000 miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Forecasters expect the disturbance to become better organized in the coming days, with the potential to develop into a named tropical storm before reaching the island chain.
If it becomes a named storm, it would receive the first name of the Central Pacific hurricane season: Lala.
Forecast models indicate that Lala could strengthen into a strong tropical storm and potentially approach hurricane strength as it moves toward Hawaii. The system could reach the islands late Saturday or Sunday local time, although the exact track and intensity remain uncertain.
Some forecast scenarios bring the system close to or over the Big Island, while other possibilities show impacts extending to additional Hawaiian islands.
Residents and visitors across Hawaii are being urged to closely monitor the forecast in the coming days. Even a tropical storm that would not be considered particularly strong on the mainland can create serious problems in Hawaii because of the islands’ terrain, infrastructure and vulnerability to heavy rainfall, strong winds and coastal hazards.
Officials and forecasters will continue tracking both systems as new data becomes available. The Atlantic disturbance remains highly uncertain and is not currently considered a threat to the continental United States, while the central Pacific system near Hawaii bears closer attention as it approaches the islands this weekend.
Forecasts are expected to become more reliable as the systems move closer to land and additional observations become available.
Original article
Comments