Talk of Carlson-Greene Third-Party Bid Raises 2028 Questions as Anti-War Conservatives Break With GO

A possible America First third-party movement built around Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene and other conservatives opposed to the Iran war is fueling speculation about 2028, with polling suggesting such a coalition could draw support from both parties but hurt Republicans more heavily.

By yourNEWS Media Newsroom

Growing anger among some conservatives over the Trump administration’s war with Iran is prompting discussion of a new political movement centered on non-intervention abroad and greater attention to domestic priorities, raising questions about whether a third-party presidential campaign could reshape the 2028 election.

Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., has been among the most prominent voices promoting the idea after breaking with the administration over the conflict.

“We said no more foreign wars and we meant it and supported Donald Trump because he made that promise. But he’s betrayed us all,” Greene posted this month. “Our commitment is America First for all Americans, right, left, and center. The movement has begun.”

Her post included an image showing Greene alongside Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., conservative commentator Tucker Carlson and former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent. All four have opposed the Iran war.

Kent resigned from his government position this year and cited his opposition to the conflict. Massie, meanwhile, has long criticized Israeli influence in the United States, opposed the war and frequently voted against Republican spending legislation. Those positions contributed to President Donald Trump backing a primary challenger who successfully defeated him.

Whether such figures could convert dissatisfaction with the administration into a viable national political coalition remains uncertain.

A Just the News report noted that some pollsters believe a prospective third-party ticket could attract independents who lean toward both Democrats and Republicans, but would likely create greater electoral problems for the GOP.

Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said the effect could be especially significant among independent voters who ordinarily favor Republicans.

“The Kent, Tucker, etc. ticket takes equal percentages of partisans but hurts the GOP more because they take more GOP-leaning indies than DEM-leaning indies,” Baris said.

Much of the political energy behind the prospective movement comes from opposition to the Iran war and dissatisfaction among voters who supported Trump after his campaign emphasis on avoiding new foreign conflicts.

A July Big Data Poll found that 62.7% of voters believed the Trump administration was concentrating too heavily on foreign affairs while giving insufficient attention to domestic matters.

Another 23% said the administration had struck an appropriate balance between domestic and foreign policy, while 14.3% said it was too focused on domestic issues and not sufficiently engaged abroad.

Trump’s approval ratings have fallen during the Iran war, but it remains unclear whether dissatisfied voters from his 2024 coalition, including independents, would ultimately support a separate party headed by figures who previously occupied the Republican Party’s right flank.

Pollster Mark Mitchell, formerly of Rasmussen Reports, argued Friday that Carlson and Greene are responding to a broader generational change in political priorities.

“Boomers have their PRINCIPLES (capitalism, democracy, conservatism). But the 4th turning tells us that youth will take over and rebuild society on a new set of VALUES (fairness, peace, prosperity, etc.),” Mitchell said. “Tucker fired the first shot of the 4th turning because he understands this.”

Speculation about a Carlson-centered presidential campaign did not begin with Greene’s latest statements. Commentators have discussed the possibility since the Iran conflict began, particularly in connection with an explicitly non-interventionist platform.

“A Tucker Carlson / Joe Kent ticket would steamroll anything Democrats or Republicans could bring,” commentator Mike Cernovich said in March.

Other Republicans have dismissed the prospect that Carlson could build a serious presidential coalition.

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, a vocal Carlson critic, addressed the idea during a Friday appearance on School of War, a public affairs and national security podcast hosted by Aaron MacLean and produced in partnership with The Free Press.

“That’s a great idea! And Tucker can form a unity ticket with Abdul El-Sayed. They both are apologists for the Muslim Brotherhood. They both love the Ayatollah. They both defend Iran,” Cruz said.

Any new party would initially depend heavily on the national profiles of figures such as Carlson and Greene, but current public-opinion measurements show significant challenges.

A running YouGov tracker places Carlson’s popularity at 21.1%, compared with 46.3% disapproval.

Greene has a 17% popularity rating and 41% disapproval.

Massie has lower negative ratings, with 15% disapproving and 19% viewing him favorably, although his name recognition remains comparatively limited. YouGov’s popularity tracker contained no data for Kent.

History also presents substantial obstacles for any national third-party campaign.

No presidential candidate outside the Republican and Democratic parties has won the White House since Zachary Taylor captured the 1848 election as a Whig.

Ross Perot mounted one of the strongest modern third-party efforts in 1992, winning 18.9% of the national popular vote but carrying no states. Historians continue to debate whether Perot drew enough support from President George H.W. Bush to help Democrat Bill Clinton win the election.

Similar questions have surrounded the 2000 campaigns of Green Party nominee Ralph Nader and Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan, although the extent of any spoiler effect remains disputed.

George Wallace ran as the American Independent Party presidential nominee in 1968.

Socialist Party of America nominee Eugene V. Debs ran for president five times. His best-known campaign came in 1920, when he received nearly 1 million votes while imprisoned in Atlanta for speaking against World War I. No academic publications have conclusively established whether those campaigns changed the outcomes of the races through a spoiler effect.

Independent and third-party candidates have found somewhat greater success in statewide contests.

Bill Walker won the Alaska governorship as an independent in 2014, although Democrats endorsed his campaign.

For conservatives now discussing an alternative America First political vehicle, the unresolved question heading toward 2028 is whether opposition to the Iran war and frustration over the administration’s foreign-policy priorities can develop into a lasting electoral coalition — or primarily divide voters who would otherwise support Republican candidates.