The global energy crisis triggered by two wars is set to worsen, as and on Middle Eastern oil production and refining. Further, the nature of the destruction and the growing number of fronts and warring parties involved may herald a new era of extended vulnerability for countries that depend on imports for their energy.
Throughout most of modern history, , including oil wells, refineries, pipelines, export terminals and power plants. But the latest weapons technology – autonomous drones and – are defeating existing defense systems.
The resulting damage is increasing the threat that crucial oil shipping lanes around the world may be slowed or stopped for long periods of time, and not just in the Strait of Hormuz and the , at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.
The world has been able to muddle through the first few months of the Iran war, but the earliest efforts to keep oil markets balanced are running out of time. First, there were that had already moved through the Strait of Hormuz before it was closed, which in March and April 2026. Then a group of governments to the market, while some countries adopted oil conservation policies such as .
At the same time, refining capacity – the facilities that convert crude oil into products, such as diesel fuel and gasoline – has been extremely compromised. that globally, the refining deficit – including bombed Russian refineries and products that cannot exit the Strait of Hormuz or the Black Sea – . Now, as more energy infrastructure gets destroyed, preventing a deeper crisis will be harder to achieve. And winter isn’t all that far away.
The growing war in the Middle East
Attacks by Iran and its proxies, often using aerial drones, have created widespread, lasting damage to Middle East energy infrastructure. For instance, across the region is out of operation due to physical damage, according to J.P. Morgan.
The conflict continues to escalate. For instance, on July 27, drones reportedly launched from southern Iraq by Iranian-aligned militants hit crude processing towers at the critical . sharply reduced Saudi Arabia’s ability to produce oil.
Saudi crude oil and refined petroleum product exports are also hindered by attacks on shipping through the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb straits. A against the raised tensions that the war might spread.
And on July 30, on the Mediterranean Sea signaled that another area might be vulnerable to the widening war. Since early in the war, Saudi Arabia has for its oil exports, sending 5 million barrels a day through the Suez Canal and Egypt’s .
Ukrainian attacks inside Russia
In its war against Russia, Ukraine’s mastery of long-range drones has resulted in successful bombing of , knocking out a significant share of Russia’s fuel-making capability. Estimates vary to as high as .
Ukrainian are by limiting military fuel supplies and war funding from exports of refined products. Yet online images show for hours waiting to get a few gallons of fuel.
The attacks have also led Russia to – which, before 2022, supplied half of Europe’s diesel.
Ripple effects, including hunger
In addition to blocking crude oil shipments, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the flow of of liquefied petroleum gas. That is a and China, among other countries.
As far back as April 2026, people in India were having trouble finding and affording gas with which to cook, . India is looking to it buys from the U.S. to ease shortages.
Other pressures are also closing in on the world’s petroleum supplies from other directions.
Seaborne drones launched by Ukraine in the Black Sea have at least temporarily blocked most , which needs that waterway to ship its oil to the Mediterranean Sea and beyond.
Houthi separatists in Yemen used in the early 2020s, blocking a key alternate route for oil shipments around the Strait of Hormuz. They are reportedly .
Those technologies and tactics are spreading to other oil-rich regions of the globe. For instance, separatists in Colombia used in late July.
Possibilities for hope?
Since the Iran war started, and petroleum-related products have , roughly one-third of its prewar imports. In fact, Chinese refiners actually started to earn money to make up for reduced activity in Chinese refineries.
One explanation is China is tapping its , but it is also possible that an economic slowdown, combined with the country’s massive build-out of , is curbing the need for imported oil-based fuel. Chinese petrochemical firms are also to replace cut-off supplies from the Middle East.
On the supply side, in Brazil, production by government-owned oil company Petrobras and is operating refineries at full capacity. As a result, its import needs have dropped substantially, offering some relief to markets in the Americas.
Venezuelan oil production has risen from 937,000 barrels a day in 2025 to . Most of that increase is from before the U.S. removed former President Nicolás Maduro. A few new deals to buy Venezuelan oil have been signed, but the . Venezuela’s laws and political instability are making companies wary, and some are still seeking repayments from when their by then-President Hugo Chávez in 2009.
Risks of inflation and long-term vulnerability
For now, and in the United States has shielded Americans from significant petroleum shortages.
But there are many ways in which that situation could change. Worsening global supply disruptions could eventually translate into higher market prices on a wide range of goods and commodities, which would .
Ultimately, the new methods of drone-based warfare against energy facilities and shipping are a major national security concern for the U.S. and all major economies that rely on energy shipments and imports of other goods to underpin their economies.
Countries will now need to work toward in a world with insecure global sea lanes, more extreme weather and .
Having researched and tracked the for decades, I expect that those efforts will focus on determining what energy sources each country has within its own borders. And given the , I anticipate more the like wind and solar power to minimize the risks of wars interrupting their energy supply.
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