At least seven pipeline projects could redirect millions of barrels of oil toward the Red Sea, Gulf of Oman and Mediterranean, potentially carrying as much as 60% of the region’s prewar exports by 2028.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Gulf oil producers are accelerating plans to move crude around the Strait of Hormuz as the war with Iran exposes the risks of relying on a narrow shipping corridor bordering the Islamic Republic.
At least seven major pipeline projects are under construction, being planned or under consideration, according to an Associated Press report citing government officials, energy companies and analysts.
The projects, which are expected to cost billions of dollars, would move oil overland to export terminals on the Red Sea, Gulf of Oman and Mediterranean. Several are projected to begin operating by 2027.
Before the war, approximately 15 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day. The conflict and resulting disruption have pushed regional governments to reconsider whether the passage can remain the central route for their energy exports.
“At least seven major pipeline projects are under construction, in the planning stage or being discussed as possibilities,” the AP reported. “The war has been a wake-up call for Gulf oil producers, who are determined to become less dependent on a transit point that hugs Iran’s coast.”
Alternative corridors are not without danger. Yemen’s Houthi rebels have attacked at least two oil tankers in the Red Sea in recent days, demonstrating that moving shipments away from Hormuz does not eliminate exposure to regional conflict.
Victoria Grabenwöger, a senior research analyst at data firm Kpler, said Gulf producers have concluded that continued dependence on the strait is “no longer a prudent long-term strategy.”
Pipelines also remain vulnerable to missile and drone attacks, particularly when they cross long distances or terminate near strategic ports and processing facilities. Even so, they offer governments a way to reduce the number of tankers forced through a single maritime chokepoint.
The scale of the current vulnerability was highlighted in a video circulated on X.
Saudi Arabia already operates an east-west pipeline constructed during the 1980s amid fears that Iran might disrupt shipping during the Iran-Iraq war. That infrastructure has played a major role in limiting the economic effects of the current crisis.
The AP noted that the “effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would have been an even greater shock to the world economy were it not for a pipeline Saudi Arabia built in the 1980s amid fears that Tehran would disrupt shipping through the strait during the Iran-Iraq war.”
Saudi Arabia’s existing route and a separate United Arab Emirates pipeline leading to the Gulf of Oman have carried more than 5.5 million additional barrels of oil since the war began.
Those flows demonstrate how overland alternatives can preserve exports when tanker traffic through Hormuz is restricted or considered too dangerous.
Goldman Sachs estimates that projects currently under construction could carry as much as 60% of the Gulf region’s prewar oil exports by 2028. The region had been exporting approximately 23 million barrels per day before the conflict.
If completed as planned, the new infrastructure would substantially reduce Iran’s ability to threaten global crude supplies by disrupting traffic through the strait. It would also give Gulf governments greater flexibility to redirect exports during military crises, shipping incidents or temporary closures.
The pipelines will not solve every energy-security problem associated with Hormuz. Liquefied natural gas must still be transported by ship, and no comparable network exists to move the same volume of LNG overland.
About 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war, with most of those shipments originating in Qatar.
That leaves global LNG markets highly exposed even if the new pipelines reduce the threat to crude oil exports. Gulf governments may be able to reroute a growing share of petroleum by land, but natural gas shipments will continue to depend heavily on safe maritime access through the region.
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