Germany’s Alternative for Germany party has climbed to 29% support while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance has fallen to 20.5%, widening the AfD’s polling advantage to its largest recorded margin.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Germany’s governing coalition is facing a deepening political crisis as the Alternative for Germany party expands its lead over Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative alliance amid widespread dissatisfaction with the government and continued economic pressure.
The AfD rose to 29% in the latest Insa survey, gaining half a percentage point from the previous week. Support for Merz’s Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, fell by a full point to 20.5%.
The results leave the AfD 8.5 percentage points ahead of the CDU/CSU, marking the largest advantage the anti-mass-migration party has recorded in an Insa poll, according to figures reported by Die Welt.
The Social Democratic Party, the CDU/CSU’s coalition partner, gained slightly but remained at only 13%. That placed the SPD level with the Greens and narrowly ahead of Die Linke, or The Left, which registered 10.5%.
Combined support for the CDU/CSU and SPD now stands at 33.5%, only 4.5 points above the AfD’s total. The governing parties have lost nearly 12 percentage points compared with their combined showing in the 2025 election.
The numbers demonstrate how closely the AfD has moved toward matching the entire governing coalition on its own. Continued gains could create increasingly difficult coalition calculations for Merz, particularly if the CDU maintains its refusal to cooperate with the AfD.
After the election, Merz chose to form a government with the Social Democrats rather than seek an agreement with the AfD. Germany’s established parties have continued enforcing a political “firewall” intended to prevent the AfD from entering government because of its opposition to mass migration and its Eurosceptic position toward the European Union.
That strategy has not stopped the AfD’s rise. Instead, the party has continued drawing support while both traditional governing blocs have weakened.
Should the AfD eventually surpass the combined support of the CDU/CSU and SPD, Merz could face pressure to seek assistance from parties farther to the left to preserve a governing majority while maintaining the exclusion of the AfD.
The chancellor’s personal standing has deteriorated alongside the coalition’s declining support. Only 14% of German voters said they were satisfied with Merz, while 85% expressed dissatisfaction, according to the latest RTL/ntv trend barometer.
The 85% dissatisfaction figure represents a record high and leaves Merz with little evidence of public confidence as his administration confronts Germany’s prolonged economic difficulties.
Germany, once regarded as the industrial production center of the European Union, has struggled to regain momentum following the economic disruptions associated with coronavirus lockdowns. Manufacturing has also been hurt by the loss of inexpensive Russian pipeline gas and oil after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2021.
The energy shock coincided with Germany’s withdrawal from nuclear power, a policy launched under former Chancellor Angela Merkel following concerns about reactor safety after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
With nuclear generation removed and Russian energy supplies sharply reduced, electricity and industrial operating costs increased. Those higher expenses have made it more difficult for German manufacturers to compete with companies operating in countries with lower energy prices.
The pressure has been especially severe for energy-intensive industries and the automotive sector, both of which have historically played central roles in Germany’s export-driven economy.
American tariffs imposed on the European Union under President Donald Trump have created another challenge for German companies. A survey conducted by Munich’s Ifo Institute found that 60% of German businesses had experienced negative effects from the tariffs.
The impact was even greater in the automobile industry, where 74% of companies reported adverse consequences.
Many businesses responded by increasing prices, a move that further reduced their competitiveness in domestic and international markets. At least one-quarter of the surveyed companies said they had been unable to pass the additional costs to customers and were instead absorbing the financial burden themselves.
The combination of weak growth, expensive energy, trade pressure and industrial uncertainty has increasingly shaped Germany’s political landscape. As voters grow more dissatisfied with Merz and the governing coalition, the AfD has positioned itself as the principal beneficiary.
With an 8.5-point advantage over the CDU/CSU and support approaching the combined strength of Germany’s two governing parties, the AfD’s latest polling result represents its strongest challenge yet to the country’s established political order.
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