Tropical Depression Two Forms Off Florida’s Gulf Coast, Tropical Storm Bertha Expected Soon

BY MIRABEL ODETA

Tropical Depression Two formed off Florida’s west coast on Sunday morning and is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha within the next one to two days as the system continues to organize, forecasters said.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for much of the Florida Panhandle coastline, stretching from the Ochlockonee River westward to the Alabama border, where tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 36 to 48 hours. Forecasters said additional watches or warnings could be issued farther west over the coming days depending on the system’s track and intensity.

For the Tampa Bay area, forecasters said little has changed in the local outlook. The depression is expected to continue moving away from Florida’s west coast, reducing the likelihood of significant impacts across the region.

The primary concern for the Tampa Bay area remains periods of showers and thunderstorms, with elevated rain chances expected to continue into early next week before gradually decreasing as the system moves farther away. While locally heavy rainfall is possible at times, forecasters said widespread impacts are not currently anticipated.

Additional Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flights scheduled for Sunday afternoon are expected to provide a better assessment of the depression’s structure and overall organization, helping forecasters refine the track and intensity forecast.

Forecasters cautioned that confidence in the forecast decreases after the next 48 hours. If the center of the system remains close to the northern Gulf Coast, interaction with land and intrusions of drier air into the circulation would likely limit strengthening, favoring a weaker system tracking toward eastern Louisiana.

However, if the center stays farther offshore over the open, exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf, the depression would have a greater opportunity to organize and intensify, with the potential to reach hurricane strength. Forecasters said the distance between the center of the storm and the coastline over the next several days will play a key role in determining both its eventual strength and its track.

Meteorologists said the forecast for the Tampa Bay area has remained largely unchanged despite ongoing uncertainty about the system’s future intensity. They said the greatest question is how much strengthening occurs after the system moves away from Florida, with its development expected to depend on the balance between favorable conditions over warm Gulf waters and limiting factors such as dry air and land interaction.