The World Meteorological Organization said forecast models increasingly point to a strong El Niño that could raise global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather through the end of the year and into 2027.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
The United Nations weather agency said Friday that a strong El Niño is expected to develop rapidly in the coming months, increasing the likelihood of higher global temperatures and more extreme weather in several regions.
The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño conditions have already emerged in the equatorial Pacific and that recent forecast models have strengthened confidence that the pattern will become strong.
El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon marked by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The pattern typically lasts nine to 12 months and can affect weather systems worldwide by raising global temperatures and increasing the risk of extreme climate events.
“El Nino conditions have emerged in the Equatorial Pacific, and there is a remarkable agreement between forecast models that this will be a strong El Nino,” said Alvaro Silva, a scientist at the WMO.
Silva said the strength of the developing El Niño matters because stronger events tend to increase the chances of significant weather and climate disruptions in different parts of the world.
The agency had forecast in early June that a moderate or possibly strong El Niño could develop. On Friday, however, the WMO said newer forecasts had given it greater confidence that strong El Niño conditions are forming in the equatorial Pacific. The agency said it could raise the forecast again later this summer if additional data points to a very strong El Niño.
Seasonal outlooks show a typical El Niño pattern developing more firmly, the WMO said. That includes drier-than-normal conditions in parts of Central America, the Caribbean, North America and South America. The agency also said drier conditions are expected in South Asia during the monsoon season, as well as in parts of Indonesia and Southeast Asia.
“El Nino will also give an extra boost to global temperatures. We know that during El Nino years the global temperatures normally reach record levels,” Silva said.
The warning comes after Europe experienced its worst recorded heatwave between June 20 and June 28, according to experts. The heat caused disruptions to power generation, damaged infrastructure and placed pressure on healthcare systems. Scientists said the extreme conditions were almost certainly driven by climate change.
Silva said El Niño’s effects are expected to be felt across different regions through the end of the year and into 2027.
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