New Department for Education census data show White British children now make up 59.7% of pupils in England, with nursery figures already showing them below half among the youngest students.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
White British pupils now account for less than 60% of schoolchildren in England for the first time, according to newly released Department for Education figures that show a major demographic shift across the country’s classrooms.
The Department for Education data for the 2025-2026 school year show pupils identified as White British make up 59.7% of children in England’s schools. Pupils from minority ethnic backgrounds now account for nearly 39%, the highest level recorded.
The figures mark a sharp change from a decade earlier, when White British pupils made up about 70% of England’s schoolchildren. Over that period, the White British share of the classroom population has fallen by roughly 10 percentage points.
British academic and commentator Matt Goodwin has pointed to the school census figures as evidence that demographic change is accelerating, arguing that schools provide an early indication of the country’s future population because pupils will become the next generation of voters, workers, parents and citizens.
The trend appears across age groups and school types.
In state-funded secondary schools, White British pupils have declined from 71% to 59% over the past decade. In primary schools, the share has fallen from 68% to just under 60%.
The most notable shift is among nursery pupils. White British children now account for 47% of nursery pupils, down from 69% in the 2016-2017 school year. That means White British children are already a minority among England’s youngest pupils.
The change is especially pronounced in London, where White British pupils are now a minority in every one of the capital’s 33 local authorities.
Similar patterns are also visible outside the capital. In Milton Keynes, White British pupils make up 41.5% of schoolchildren. In Blackburn, the figure is 38.4%. Bradford records 37.3%, while Wolverhampton stands at 34.5%.
The share is lower in several major urban areas. Manchester is listed at 28.7%, while Birmingham is listed at 23.6% in one section of the source material. Leicester records 19.5%. Barking and Dagenham stands at 14.9%, Luton at 13.7%, and Slough at 9.2%.
One section of the source material lists Birmingham even lower, reflecting how significantly some local areas have changed. The broader national data show the White British share of England’s school-age population is continuing to fall.
Nursery data show the trend at an earlier stage. Among the 101 local authorities for which figures are available, White British children are now a minority in more than half.
In areas including Luton, Coventry, Slough, Wolverhampton, and parts of Birmingham and Bradford, White British children reportedly make up around 10% or less of nursery pupils.
Language data show another shift in England’s classrooms. Nearly 22% of pupils now speak a language other than English as their first language. A decade ago, the figure was about 18%.
That means more than one in five schoolchildren in England now has a first language other than English.
Critics of current immigration levels argue the data raise questions about integration, classroom pressure, social cohesion, English-language proficiency and the future of a shared national culture. Supporters of the current immigration model describe the figures as evidence of diversity and social change.
The Department for Education did not attach policy recommendations to the figures. The data come from the regular school census, which tracks pupil characteristics across England.
Goodwin’s broader demographic projections have warned that White British people could become a minority in the United Kingdom by the 2060s if current trends continue. His report, “Demographic Change and the Future of the United Kingdom: 2022-2122,” projects the White British share of the population falling from about 73% in 2025 to 57% by 2050 and about 34% by 2100.
The same analysis projects the broader White population, including White Other, falling below 50% by the late 2070s. It projects the non-White population rising to nearly 60% by the end of the century.
Goodwin also projects the Muslim share of the population increasing from about 7% today to about 19% by 2100. His model assumes continued high net migration, higher fertility rates among some minority groups and low White British birth rates.
Goodwin has described those projections as an “if current trends continue” scenario, not a guaranteed outcome. Critics of his analysis argue that long-term demographic forecasts can change depending on future migration policy, fertility rates, intermarriage and how people identify themselves in official data.
The school census figures, however, are not projections. They are official data showing that England’s youngest generations are already more demographically diverse than the overall population.
The figures are likely to intensify political debate over immigration policy, integration requirements, English-language standards and how schools teach British history, identity and civic life.
The data also add to arguments that immigration policy should be evaluated not only by economic measures, but also by its effect on schools, communities and national cohesion.
England’s classrooms now show a demographic transformation that is most advanced among the youngest pupils, making school census data a central part of the country’s broader debate over immigration, identity and the future composition of the United Kingdom.
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