Airbus Turns Toward Saab as Collapse of European Fighter Project Redraws Defence Alliances

BY EMMANUEL OGBONNA

The breakdown of Europe’s flagship Future Combat Air System (FCAS) program is triggering a major realignment in the continent’s defence industry, with Airbus increasingly viewing Swedish defence manufacturer Saab as a potential strategic partner for the next generation of military aircraft, according to people familiar with ongoing discussions.

The shift comes at a pivotal moment for European defence cooperation as governments seek to strengthen military capabilities amid rising geopolitical tensions and increased defence spending. The end of the long-troubled FCAS partnership between Airbus and France’s Dassault Aviation has forced policymakers and defence companies to reconsider how Europe will develop the combat aircraft that are expected to dominate its air forces for decades to come.

Sources familiar with the matter said Airbus and Saab have been engaged in exploratory discussions for at least six months. While the talks remain at an early stage, they have gained momentum as defence ties between Germany and Sweden continue to deepen.

Airbus represents Germany and Spain within Europe’s fighter aircraft industry and has been searching for potential partners capable of contributing advanced technology, engineering expertise and industrial capacity to future military aviation projects. Saab, best known for developing the Gripen fighter jet, has increasingly emerged as a leading candidate.

Industry insiders caution that no final decisions have been made and that Airbus continues to evaluate multiple options. In addition to discussions involving Saab, senior figures have also maintained contacts with participants in the separate Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a multinational fighter initiative involving Britain, Italy and Japan.

The future of European military aviation has become one of the most closely watched issues in the defence sector following the collapse of FCAS, a project that had been intended to unite France, Germany and Spain in the development of a sixth-generation combat aircraft system.

For nearly a decade, FCAS was promoted as a symbol of European strategic cooperation and technological independence. However, persistent disagreements between industrial partners, combined with differing military requirements and competing national priorities, gradually undermined confidence in the project.

The formal separation between Airbus and Dassault is expected to be highlighted during this week’s Berlin Airshow, one of the aviation industry’s most significant events. The move effectively ends years of attempts to reconcile differences between the two aerospace giants and opens the door for Airbus to explore alternative partnerships more openly.

Speaking during the event in Berlin, Airbus Defence and Space Chief Executive Michael Schoellhorn acknowledged that Saab is among the companies being considered as a potential future partner. However, he stressed that discussions remain preliminary and that other possibilities are still under evaluation.

According to Schoellhorn, any future decision will also depend heavily on the requirements of the German Air Force and broader political considerations within Europe.

Saab has responded cautiously to reports of closer cooperation. The Swedish company indicated that any major defence partnership would ultimately require political approval from participating governments. Nevertheless, company representatives emphasized that Saab remains open to working with a wide range of international defence firms.

The growing dialogue between Airbus and Saab reflects broader changes in European defence relationships.

Historically, Sweden pursued an independent path in military aviation development. During the previous generation of fighter aircraft programs, France developed the Rafale while Britain, Germany, Spain and Italy collaborated on the Eurofighter Typhoon. Sweden, meanwhile, chose to create the Gripen independently, preserving a domestic aerospace capability that remains one of the country’s most important strategic assets.

As planning begins for the next generation of fighter aircraft, Sweden has yet to fully commit to a specific international partnership. The country previously participated in research efforts linked to Britain’s future combat aircraft plans but is also conducting studies into a possible successor to the Gripen. Major political decisions regarding Sweden’s long-term direction are expected around 2030.

Industry sources say Sweden possesses both the technological expertise and industrial capacity needed to play a significant role in any future European fighter development program.

The strengthening relationship between Germany and Sweden has provided additional momentum for cooperation. During a visit to Germany last year, Swedish Defence Minister Pal Jonson described bilateral defence-industrial relations as rapidly expanding, reflecting broader efforts to enhance military cooperation between the two countries.

Earlier discussions between Airbus and Saab have already focused on unmanned systems and advanced drone technologies. Those talks centered on developing capabilities that could operate alongside existing fighter aircraft such as the Eurofighter and the Gripen E.

Military planners increasingly view autonomous and remotely operated systems as critical components of future air combat operations. Such technologies could eventually evolve into so-called “loyal wingman” aircraft, capable of supporting manned fighters during missions by conducting reconnaissance, electronic warfare or strike operations.

Defence analysts believe those earlier discussions could provide a foundation for broader cooperation on future combat aircraft development.

Despite the growing interest in an Airbus-Saab partnership, significant obstacles remain.

One challenge involves aligning military requirements. Differences over operational priorities have historically complicated multinational fighter programs. Similar disagreements contributed to France’s decision to withdraw from the Eurofighter project decades ago in favor of developing the Rafale independently.

Questions remain about whether Germany and Sweden share sufficiently similar strategic requirements to support a long-term joint fighter development effort.

Another possibility involves Airbus joining the Global Combat Air Programme. The project, led by Britain, Italy and Japan, aims to deliver a next-generation combat aircraft by 2035.

This week, Italian defence company Leonardo signaled openness to German participation in GCAP. Leonardo Chief Executive Lorenzo Mariani described Germany as a highly valuable potential partner, suggesting there could be room for future collaboration.

However, industry observers note that GCAP already operates under an ambitious timetable agreed upon by its current members. The project’s tight schedule could limit opportunities for new participants to assume major leadership roles.

The collapse of FCAS has also reignited debate over whether any European nation can realistically develop a next-generation fighter aircraft entirely on its own.

Dassault maintains that it possesses the expertise required to independently design and build an advanced combat aircraft, supported by France’s long-standing aerospace capabilities. The company remains the only European manufacturer in recent decades to have successfully developed a modern fighter jet using domestically produced engines and systems.

Yet rising development costs present a formidable challenge. Modern fighter programs often require investments measured in tens of billions of dollars, placing significant pressure on national budgets already strained by economic challenges and competing spending priorities.

Airbus executives have repeatedly emphasized the importance of maintaining a European approach to defence development rather than pursuing purely national solutions. German policymakers have similarly argued that multinational cooperation remains essential if Europe hopes to compete with aerospace giants in the United States and China.

At the Berlin Airshow, an Airbus-backed coalition of defence companies is expected to advocate for stronger support of German aerospace industry interests. Industry sources, however, insist that the effort should not be interpreted as the launch of a new fighter program.

Analysts say the coming years will be decisive for Europe’s defence sector. The choices made by governments and manufacturers now will shape military aviation capabilities well into the second half of the century.

With development costs continuing to rise and domestic orders often insufficient to sustain large-scale programs, most European nations are expected to seek international partnerships. Future alliances could potentially extend beyond Europe, involving countries in the Middle East and other regions interested in advanced defence technology.

Experts argue that while multinational cooperation does not eliminate the enormous expense of developing next-generation fighter aircraft, it spreads costs across multiple governments and industries, making ambitious programs financially achievable.

As Europe reassesses its defence priorities in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment, the search for new alliances is becoming as important as the aircraft themselves. The emerging relationship between Airbus and Saab may ultimately prove to be one of the most significant developments in the continent’s evolving military aviation landscape.