BY COMFORT OGBONNA
Global oil prices climbed sharply on Monday as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reignited concerns about supply disruptions, sending energy markets higher and reversing losses recorded at the end of last week. Traders reacted to reports of fresh Israeli military strikes in Lebanon and explosions heard in several Iranian cities, developments that fueled fears that the regional conflict could intensify and further threaten global crude supplies.
Brent crude futures rose by $3.20, or 3.39%, to $96.24 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.87, or 3.17%, to reach $93.41 per barrel during early trading. The gains effectively erased Friday’s decline, when optimism surrounding possible diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran had weighed on oil prices.
Market sentiment shifted dramatically after reports emerged that sounds of explosions had been heard in Tehran, Tabriz, and Isfahan. The incidents dampened hopes that a broader peace agreement could be reached in the near term and raised concerns that instability in the region could persist. Investors remain particularly focused on the impact of the conflict on energy infrastructure and shipping routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply is transported.
The conflict has become one of the most significant drivers of energy markets in recent months, contributing to a surge of more than 50% in oil prices since March. Although Iran launched a wave of missile attacks against Israeli targets on Sunday in response to earlier military actions, diplomatic efforts aimed at preventing a wider regional war continue.
U.S. President Donald Trump expressed confidence that a broader peace agreement remains achievable despite the latest escalation. Speaking to the Financial Times, Trump said ongoing military actions would not derail negotiations and emphasized that diplomatic channels remain active. Reports also indicated that the U.S. president urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid further military strikes that could jeopardize efforts to reach a settlement.
Iran has reportedly linked any comprehensive peace agreement with Washington to a ceasefire involving Lebanon. The situation in Lebanon has remained a major source of instability since Israel launched military operations there in March following attacks by Iran-backed Hezbollah forces. While Lebanon and Israel announced a ceasefire agreement on June 3 after negotiations in Washington, previous attempts to halt hostilities had failed to bring lasting peace, with sporadic violence continuing despite earlier agreements.
The broader regional conflict has remained largely deadlocked since the United States and Israel suspended direct attacks on Iran in early April. During this period, Tehran has continued to restrict much of the shipping traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant challenges for global energy markets. At the same time, Washington has maintained pressure on Iran through measures targeting the country’s ports and maritime activities.
The resulting strain on global oil supplies has increased concerns about energy security and inflation, particularly for countries heavily dependent on imported crude. Higher oil prices can raise transportation and manufacturing costs, potentially feeding into broader inflationary pressures across major economies.
Against this backdrop, the OPEC+ alliance agreed on Sunday to implement its fourth oil production increase in as many months. The group hopes the move will help stabilize markets and ease concerns about supply shortages. However, many analysts remain skeptical about the effectiveness of the decision, noting that several member countries are struggling to meet their production targets.
Production challenges have become more severe due to disruptions linked to the Hormuz shipping restrictions, while Russia continues to face difficulties stemming from attacks on critical energy infrastructure. These obstacles have limited the ability of some producers to significantly increase output despite official targets calling for higher production levels.
Analysts at energy consultancy Rystad Energy said the latest OPEC+ decision is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on actual supply conditions in the near term. According to the firm’s assessment, logistical constraints and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to outweigh any additional barrels that producers may pledge to bring to the market.
With tensions showing few signs of easing and uncertainty surrounding key oil transit routes remaining elevated, energy markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. Traders and policymakers alike will be closely monitoring diplomatic negotiations, military activity, and supply chain disruptions that could shape the direction of oil prices in the weeks ahead.
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