Former Rep. George Santos is reportedly being examined by federal authorities over prediction-market wagers connected to whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Former Rep. George Santos is under federal scrutiny over allegations involving prediction-market activity tied to his expected appearance at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, according to multiple reports.
The Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are reviewing Santos’ activity on Kalshi, a prediction-market platform where users were wagering on whether the former New York Republican congressman would attend the speech, CNN reported, citing unnamed sources.
The episode began in February, one day before Trump’s address, when Santos posted on X that he planned to attend, according to NPR. At the time, NPR reported, millions of dollars were being wagered on prediction markets over which public figures would be present.
After Santos indicated he would be there, the market price reflecting the likelihood of his attendance rose sharply. But Santos did not appear at the event. While Trump was delivering the speech, Santos posted that he would not attend, causing the market tied to his presence to fall.
Sources told NPR that, as public speculation unfolded, Santos had placed Kalshi wagers that he would not attend the address. The reported trading activity generated profits in the tens of thousands of dollars, NPR said, citing sources familiar with the matter.
Kalshi froze Santos’ account and referred the matter to federal authorities, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice, according to NPR.
Santos denied knowing about the investigation when contacted by NPR.
“Well, that’s news to me,” Santos told the outlet.
Asked whether he had an account on Kalshi, Santos declined to give a direct answer.
“I’m not saying yes, I’m not saying no,” he said.
Santos also told NPR he knew Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, describing her as “a fellow Brazilian” and saying he would ask her about the matter and follow up with the outlet. NPR reported that Santos did not contact the outlet again, and that a source said Lara does not know Santos.
Santos later responded publicly on X, writing, “I hate to disappoint but I don’t engage with rag reporting anymore… Business as usual on my end haters!” in a post addressing the reports.
The reported investigation adds another legal and political controversy to Santos’ record following his removal from Congress. Santos was expelled from the House in 2023 over allegations that included misuse of campaign funds, The Guardian reported.
In April 2025, Santos was sentenced to seven years in prison after pleading guilty to wire fraud and identity theft. Trump later commuted the sentence, and Santos was released from prison last year.
Federal authorities have not publicly announced charges related to the Kalshi matter.
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