A new Odoxa-Mascaret survey projects National Rally President Jordan Bardella ahead in both rounds of France’s 2027 presidential race as centrist support weakens and the left gains ground.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
National Rally President Jordan Bardella is projected to lead France’s 2027 presidential race in both rounds of voting, according to a new Odoxa-Mascaret poll that shows the country’s centrist establishment under mounting pressure as President Emmanuel Macron approaches the end of his second term.
The survey, conducted for Public Sénat among more than 1,000 voters, found Bardella holding a large first-round advantage at 32%. His nearest rival, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, stood at 17%, while far-left La France Insoumise leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon was close behind at 16%.
The poll also showed Bardella defeating Philippe in a potential second-round contest, 52% to 48%.
The findings come as France’s political landscape continues shifting ahead of the 2027 election, when Macron will be barred from seeking another term. Philippe, the mayor of Le Havre and leader of the Horizons party, has been viewed as one of the leading centrist figures positioned to carry forward Macron’s governing legacy. But the poll showed his support falling by four points since March, narrowing his margin over Mélenchon for a place in the runoff.
France’s presidential election system sends the top two candidates from the first round into a second-round vote. That structure makes Philippe’s slipping position significant, because a continued decline could raise pressure among centrists to rally behind a different candidate.
Other possible figures include former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and current Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, both of whom recently backed lower immigration in public comments that appeared aimed at center-right voters. The two were cited in Le Figaro this week.
Philippe’s weakening poll numbers follow the announcement by France’s National Financial Prosecutor’s Office that he is under investigation over allegations involving embezzlement of public funds, favoritism and illegal conflict of interest. The probe concerns a €2 million contract awarded by his mayoral administration in Le Havre to a charity led by a political ally, Politico Europe reported.
Mélenchon’s allies welcomed the poll showing him close to Philippe. Manuel Bompard, a senior figure in La France Insoumise, highlighted the far-left leader’s gains as evidence of momentum.
Bardella’s position could be even stronger in a second-round contest against Mélenchon. A previous Odoxa survey testing that matchup found Bardella defeating the LFI leader by 74% to 26%, according to the submitted material.
Despite the latest polling, Bardella’s role in the 2027 race remains uncertain because Marine Le Pen is still National Rally’s best-known presidential figure. Le Pen has run unsuccessfully for president three times and remains Bardella’s political mentor. Bardella, 30, is widely viewed as the party’s backup option if Le Pen cannot appear on the ballot.
Le Pen is currently appealing a ruling that could block her from running in 2027. The case stems from allegations that she and her party misused European Union funds for political activity in France. A court found last year that the allegations warranted a five-year ban from standing in elections in Europe. A decision on her appeal is expected this summer.
The survey nevertheless shows National Rally entering the pre-election period from a position of strength. Bardella’s lead, Philippe’s decline and Mélenchon’s rise point to a fragmented race in which France’s traditional centrist bloc may face pressure from both the right and the left.
The results also underscore how the 2027 contest could become a major test of whether Macron’s political coalition can survive beyond his presidency or whether National Rally can convert its polling strength into a second-round victory.
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