Federal forecasters say a strengthening El Niño is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity this year, though experts warn that even a below-average season can still produce destructive storms.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast Thursday that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will likely be less active than normal due to the expected development of a strong El Niño weather pattern.
NOAA’s seasonal outlook gives a 55 percent probability of a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, with forecasters predicting between eight and 14 named storms during the 2026 season.
Of those storms, NOAA projects three to six could strengthen into hurricanes, while one to three may intensify into major hurricanes with sustained winds exceeding 110 mph.
Historically, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and continues through Nov. 30.
The federal forecast aligns with predictions from numerous academic and private forecasting groups, many of which are also projecting reduced Atlantic storm activity this year.
Those outside forecasts collectively average approximately 12 named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. Several also project the season’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy index — a measure combining storm strength and duration — to reach roughly 80 percent of normal activity.
Colorado State University hurricane researchers, who pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasting in the 1980s, predicted the quietest Atlantic season since 2015, another year dominated by a powerful El Niño event.
Phil Klotzbach said forecasts could decline even further when updated projections are released in June.
The quieter outlook follows nearly a decade of elevated Atlantic hurricane activity. Nine of the last 10 Atlantic seasons have been classified as above normal or hyperactive.
Despite a slow start last year, the Atlantic ultimately produced three Category 5 hurricanes, including Hurricane Melissa, which heavily impacted Jamaica and Cuba, according to Suzana Camargo.
Meteorologists say the primary reason for the anticipated slowdown is the expected emergence of a strong El Niño system in the Pacific Ocean.
“El Niño is the elephant in the room,” Camargo said.
El Niño refers to a cyclical warming of portions of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that alters atmospheric circulation patterns globally. Scientists have long associated El Niño events with reduced hurricane formation in the Atlantic and increased storm activity in parts of the Pacific.
NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said Thursday there is a 98 percent probability that El Niño conditions will develop this summer and an 80 percent chance the event will become moderate or strong.
Research shows that strong El Niño years historically produce fewer Atlantic storms because increased upper-level wind shear disrupts tropical storm formation.
Kristen Corbosiero explained that strong crosswinds several miles above the ocean surface can interfere with hurricane development by destabilizing thunderstorms before they organize into stronger systems.
“A stronger than normal wind shear tends to tilt storms as they try to develop,” said Brian Tang. “It pushes dry air into storms and prevents storms from intensifying.”
Forecast models show stronger-than-normal wind shear across the Atlantic’s primary hurricane development region near West Africa, an area where many long-lived Atlantic hurricanes typically form.
Klotzbach noted that during the 15 strongest El Niño years since 1950, the continental United States experienced significantly fewer hurricane landfalls compared to strong La Niña years.
According to his analysis, those strong El Niño periods produced 37 named storm landfalls, 11 hurricanes, and three major hurricanes affecting the continental U.S., compared to 61 named storms, 31 hurricanes, and 10 major hurricanes during strong La Niña years.
Experts cautioned, however, that lower overall activity does not eliminate the threat of major storms reaching populated areas.
“We should expect a less active year than certainly what we’ve seen recently, and perhaps significantly so below average,” Corbosiero said. “But again, it only takes one to cause real devastation and destruction.”
While Atlantic activity is expected to decrease, forecasters anticipate more active conditions in the eastern and central Pacific due to El Niño’s opposite influence there.
Jacobs said NOAA projects a 70 percent probability of an above-normal eastern Pacific hurricane season.
Meteorologists also warned that Pacific storms can still threaten coastal Mexico, Hawaii, and portions of the southwestern United States under certain atmospheric conditions.
The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially began May 15.
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