A powerful El Niño weather pattern associated with rising global temperatures and severe climate disruptions is expected to develop this year, leading to worries that the event — possibly the strongest since 1877 — could exacerbate already existing maritime trade disruptions by causing crop losses.
According to the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Weather Service, there is an 82 percent chance that El Niño conditions will emerge between now and July and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
A “Super El Niño” typically refers to a rise of about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) in Pacific sea surface temperatures.
If current forecasts hold, El Niño conditions are expected to remain active through the winter months in countries north of the equator, including India, China, the United States, Japan, Canada, Russia, and much of Europe.
El Niño develops in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, stretching from the western coasts of North and South America toward Southeast Asia and Australia. The phenomenon occurs every two to seven years when sea surface temperatures rise by at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 degrees Celsius) above historical averages, according to Live Science.
Forecast predicts record event
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Some climate experts believe this year’s El Niño could become one of the strongest on record.
“Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s. The next substantial westerly wind event will likely occur during the last 10 days of May,” Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany, wrote on X on May 5.
The 1877 Super El Niño contributed to the global famine of 1876 to 1878, which historians estimate killed tens of millions of people worldwide.
Analysts say that while modern food systems and international supply networks are far more developed, the risks of widespread disruption remain significant.
“The projected El Niño is likely to yield asymmetric impacts; with drought-like conditions reducing maize, rice, and wheat production in Asia and Australia and wet conditions boosting global soybean production in the Americas,” Leigh Mante, junior fellow for climate and energy at the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, wrote in a report published May 11.
Mante said El Niño-driven conditions could intensify heatwaves, strain hydropower systems, and disrupt mining operations through flash flooding, potentially slowing the global clean energy transition.
She also warned that drought conditions in Southeast Asia and Australia, combined with a weaker monsoon season in South Asia, could reduce production of rice, grains, sugar, and palm oil.
According to Mante, those risks could worsen if instability around the Strait of Hormuz disrupts fertilizer shipments.
“Prolonged trade blockages of nitrogenous-based fertilisers through the Strait of Hormuz and dwindling options for viable fertiliser alternatives may result in potentially weaker yields for rice, cotton, and soybeans,” she wrote.
She added that disruptions affecting major food-producing countries would likely spread to food-importing nations through higher prices and tighter supplies.
Shipping and maritime trade at risk
Historical records and recent climate events suggest El Niño can also disrupt major trade routes and maritime traffic.
Analysts warn that ongoing tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could further amplify those risks.
In 2024, drought conditions in Central America linked to El Niño contributed to lower water levels in the Panama Canal, forcing authorities to reduce vessel weight limits, according to Ship Technology, a business-to-business shipping industry publication.
Mante said the drier conditions associated with El Niño could again affect maritime traffic this year.
“With ongoing trade blockages at the Strait of Hormuz, added climate vulnerabilities may further complicate just-in-time supply chain operations,” she wrote.
She also warned that rainfall shifts from land to ocean associated with El Niño could contribute to rising sea levels and place additional pressure on critical maritime infrastructure.
Mante said governments and industries should move quickly to strengthen resilience against the combined risks posed by climate shocks and geopolitical instability.
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