The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1, and while a might result in a than in the past few years, all it takes is one big storm hitting a populated area to make it a bad hurricane season.

Every year, Americans rely on accurate forecasts when hurricanes might be developing to know when to stock up on supplies, prepare for power outages or evacuate.

Those forecasts have , but the improvements can’t be taken for granted. Over the past year, federal funding cuts and job losses in the very programs that are helping make Americans safer from extreme weather threaten to stall progress and stretch forecasting resources to the breaking point.

Hurricane track forecasts have become more accurate over the past three decades. For example, recent forecasts showing where a storm is expected to be in 96 hours have been, on average, about as accurate as a 24-hour track forecast was in the early 1990s. That gives people more time to evacuate. The lines show how many miles off the National Hurricane Center’s official storm tracks were.

I am an whose research focuses on hurricanes, including how and why they intensify or weaken. I also work with scientists at the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, NOAA, to analyze observations collected by reconnaissance aircraft and evaluate computer model forecasts of hurricanes.

Here’s what forecasters rely on during hurricane season and why investing in science, forecasting technologies and the people who run them matters.

Flying through hurricanes

To have the best chance of an accurate hurricane forecast, computer models and meteorologists need to know about the of a hurricane, along with the environment that surrounds it. Satellites are crucial for , but many details can be collected only inside the storm, where satellites can’t see.

That’s why NOAA relies on “hurricane hunters” – a group of skilled pilots and scientists who all season long to collect storm data, which is quickly transmitted to forecasters and computer models.

Flight Director Quinn Kalen at his work station during a flight into Hurricane Lee on Sept. 8, 2023.
A radar display shows NOAA’s Miss Piggy hurricane hunter aircraft in the center of Tropical Storm Idalia on Aug. 28, 2023.

When storms are developing, the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA conduct several hurricane hunter flights per day to provide the most up-to-date storm information. During these missions, the crews often fly directly into the storm, through screaming winds and heavy rain, to release .

The dropsonde is a , able to accurately measure the temperature, humidity, wind and pressure in hostile conditions. This data is radioed back to the aircraft. From there, it is processed and transmitted to NOAA, where forecasters analyze it and computer models use it to initialize forecasts.

A NOAA scientist explains how hurricane forecasters use dropsondes.

I and many hurricane scientists have collected over the years to build a better understanding of how hurricanes behave. A recent study showed that more accurate when they included dropsonde data than those that didn’t.

Simulating hurricanes

A big reason hurricane forecasts have gotten better has been federal investments in computer models that can simulate these storms.

In 2008 the U.S. government funded the , leading to substantial advancements in computer modeling . Computer models got better at incorporating the observations gathered by aircraft, showing air movements and rain bands in greater detail.

A HAFS radar forecast shows Hurricane Melissa as it approaches Jamaica in October 2025. The HAFS model performed well in forecasting the intensification and extreme strength of the Category 5 storm in the days leading up to its landfall in Jamaica. NOAA/AOML/HRD

The flagship NOAA hurricane model is now the , which does a , among other things, than its predecessors.

When storms rapidly intensify, as several have done in recent years, they can pose an acute risk to coastal communities. More accurate forecasts give people and communities better information to decide how to prepare and when they need to evacuate. Improvements since 2007 have per hurricane landfall and many lives saved.

That’s a huge . In 2024, NOAA’s .

Keeping an eye on the storms ahead

There are some exciting developments ahead in hurricane observations and modeling.

NOAA in 2024 ordered two , expected to be delivered by 2030, to begin replacing its aging hurricane hunter fleet so fights and their data collection can continue.

Private companies working with NOAA have – both in the air and sail drones on the ocean surface – that can collect data in areas where quality observations are hard to get.

Additionally, artificial intelligence weather models have emerged, such as Google DeepMind, which made a big splash as of the 2025 hurricane season.

Some lingering dark clouds

Despite these promising developments, a different storm is eroding the bedrock upon which the national weather forecast enterprise sits.

Cuts in have stressed NOAA’s ability to collect critical observations. Last year, to staff hurricane hunter reconnaissance flights so the missions could still be flown.

Knowing when to evacuate is crucial. Hurricane Helene made a mess in Horseshoe Beach, Fla., on Sept. 28, 2024. The storm was blamed for at least 250 deaths across six states.

The Trump administration proposed , including . Congress proposed budget cuts, ultimately approving a $6.1 billion budget in March 2026, still down from the previous budget.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research, which led the and dropsonde technology, has also to be dismantled. The “will harm meteorological research and innovation in the United States with severe consequences to current and future efforts of the weather enterprise to protect life, property, and the nation’s economy.”

I worry about the funding and staff cuts stressing systems that keep scientific progress marching forward and warn Americans about hazardous weather. Losing staff and support raises the risk of critical failures, such as delayed severe weather warnings and broken equipment when storms threaten. In the long run, failing to invest risks stagnation or even reversing the hard-fought progress the U.S. has made in advancing weather prediction.

With coastal populations and development expanding over the past few decades, and , the to costly, damaging hurricanes has increased dramatically. It is more important than ever that public investment in hurricane science and forecasting continue.

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