Classified assessment says Beijing is capitalizing on the Middle East war by expanding influence abroad while U.S. weapons stockpiles and diplomatic standing face new strain.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
A classified U.S. military intelligence assessment warns that China is benefiting strategically from the ongoing war involving Iran as the conflict consumes American military resources, strains weapons inventories, and creates new opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence with allies traditionally aligned with Washington.
According to a Washington Post report, the analysis was prepared by the Joint Staff’s intelligence directorate for Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and concludes that Chinese officials are leveraging the regional conflict across military, diplomatic, and economic fronts while President Donald Trump conducts high-level meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
U.S. officials familiar with the assessment told the outlet that Beijing has used the crisis to deepen relationships with Persian Gulf nations by supplying weapons systems to countries attempting to defend themselves from Iranian missile and drone attacks. The report also states that China has moved to assist countries facing energy shortages after Iran restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally handles a significant share of global oil and natural gas shipments.
Ryan Hass, a China expert with the Brookings Institution, said Beijing is attempting to present itself internationally as a stabilizing force while the United States remains focused on military operations in the Middle East.
“China is presenting itself as a solutions provider in providing access to jet fuel and other products that are in short supply as a bridge for the short term,” Hass told the Post.
“This is not altruism. It is Beijing seizing on an opportunity to drive wedges between America and its traditional partners.”
The assessment also reportedly warns that the war has significantly reduced portions of the U.S. military’s precision weapons inventory, including Patriot and THAAD missile defense interceptors along with Tomahawk cruise missiles, munitions viewed as central to any potential conflict involving Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region.
Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told the newspaper the depletion of those weapons systems is reshaping perceptions among American allies in Asia.
“On balance, the war in Iran is massively improving China’s geopolitical position,” Stokes said.
He added that concerns are growing about how quickly the United States could replenish key munitions stockpiles if a major conflict emerged elsewhere.
“This prompts questions about the U.S. defense industrial base’s ability to rapidly restock munitions and adds to already existing concerns about slow deliveries,” Stokes said.
The intelligence review also states that Beijing is incorporating the conflict into a broader international messaging campaign portraying the United States as an overstretched power weakened by repeated military entanglements abroad.
According to the report, Chinese officials have attempted to characterize Washington as an “aggressive, unilateralist power in decline” as the Middle East conflict continues.
Stokes said the situation has created an opening for China to challenge American credibility internationally.
“China has an opening to portray the United States as an aggressive, unilateralist power in decline because Washington cannot stop itself from getting embroiled in bloody and costly Middle East wars,” he told the Post.
The geopolitical concerns outlined in the assessment come as the Iran conflict increasingly creates domestic political pressure for the Trump administration.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to higher global energy prices and rising fuel costs in the United States, adding pressure to household budgets already strained by inflation and broader economic uncertainty.
The war has also intensified debate over the long-term costs of another extended military conflict in the Middle East as the country approaches the 2026 midterm election cycle.
The White House and Pentagon strongly disputed the conclusions outlined in the assessment.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell rejected suggestions that the global balance of power is shifting away from the United States, calling such claims “fundamentally false.”
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales defended the administration’s military campaign, stating that American forces had “decimated the Iranian regime’s military capabilities in 38 short days.”
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