By Anietie anii-bassey
Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments, has intensified pressures on the world’s energy markets, yet the country itself is grappling with mounting economic distress that threatens to undermine its capacity to sustain the conflict and resist international demands.
The Iranian public is bearing the brunt of surging prices for basic necessities, including food, medicine, and household goods. At the same time, widespread job losses, shuttered businesses, and the government’s prolonged internet restrictions have compounded economic strain. The cumulative impact of war and a U.S.-led naval blockade has proven severe.
“The economic cost has been very substantial and unprecedented for Iran,” said Hadi Kahalzadeh, an Iranian economist and research fellow at Brandeis University. Yet, he emphasized that Iran’s economy has demonstrated resilience in the face of decades of sanctions and external pressure.
“Iran can probably avoid a complete economic collapse or total shortage of essential goods, but at a very high cost,” Kahalzadeh added. “The main burden will fall on ordinary Iranians through higher inflation, deeper poverty, reduced public services, and a harsher daily life.”
Economic indicators underline the severity of the crisis. The International Monetary Fund projects the Iranian economy will shrink by roughly 6 percentage points in the coming year. Meanwhile, official government statistics show that annual inflation reached 53.7% in mid-April, with food inflation surpassing 115% compared with the previous year.
The national currency, the rial, has lost more than half its value over the past year, plunging to a record low of 1.9 million to the U.S. dollar. Rising prices contributed to mass protests across the country earlier this year.
Everyday Iranians are feeling the pinch. In central Tehran, 56-year-old taxi driver Hossein Farmani described the sharp increases in food costs over the past year. Milk, tea, and other staples have risen by more than 50% since the onset of hostilities. “If things keep heading in this direction, we’re going to suffer a lot more,” he said, gesturing toward his car and the waiting passengers.
Grocery store surveys across Tehran reveal similar patterns. Since February, even before the war intensified, chicken and lamb prices increased by 45%, rice by 31%, and eggs by 60%. Government measures, such as a 60% hike in the minimum wage and coupon programs for essential goods, have attempted to ease the burden, but some economists warn these policies may fuel further inflation.
For taxi drivers like 73-year-old Mohammad Deljoo, daily survival has become a struggle. Supporting two children on just $4 a day, he said the problem lies not in scarcity but in “price gouging.” Even essential items such as bread, potatoes, and eggs have become unaffordable, while car parts, including tires, have multiplied in cost over the past year.
Economic hardships are forcing many Iranians to find alternative sources of income. Ali Asghar Nahardani, 32, who works for a ride-hailing service that has failed to pay him for more than a month, has turned to street vending to make ends meet. “We’re just living day by day, trying to get through this situation while the war conditions continue,” he said.
The conflict is accelerating the erosion of Iran’s once sizable middle class. By 2019, the middle class had already contracted to roughly 55% of the population, according to Mohammad Farzanegan, a professor of Middle Eastern economics at the University of Marburg. Further rounds of sanctions, corruption, and economic mismanagement have since pushed millions closer to poverty, a trend the United Nations’ development agency warned about in March.
For many, the economic crisis has become a mental health crisis as well. A physical trainer in Tehran, speaking anonymously, said clients can no longer afford her services and now seek guidance on coping with anxiety and depression. “The system is just collapsing.
The layoffs are in factories, in companies, in startups, in whatever your work is,” she said, describing a sharp reduction in her own consumption of groceries and personal services, including therapy.
Residents in Karaj, near Tehran, report similar challenges. Insurance sales for cars and homes have plummeted, and families are struggling to stay afloat. Many attribute the crisis to systemic corruption and Iran’s costly foreign interventions in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq.
Iranian leadership is attempting to rally the public by framing the situation as a necessary sacrifice for the war effort. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei referred to the current economic hardships as an “economic battlefield,” urging employers to minimize layoffs. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf echoed this sentiment, calling on Iranians to “be frugal” and to support one another to mitigate the impact of the crisis.
The U.S.-imposed blockade has sharply curtailed Iran’s trade through its southern ports, which handle over 90% of exports, including oil. Yet for many Iranians, compromise is not an option. Farmani, the taxi driver, expressed a widespread sentiment: “A country that has sacrificed so many martyrs and has so many people willing to give their lives cannot simply let others from across the world dictate terms to us.”
As the war continues and economic pressures mount, ordinary Iranians face an uncertain future, balancing survival against a national struggle that shows few signs of abating.
Original article
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