By Ginika Igboke
As the United States military continues its blockade of Iranian ports, Iran has significantly increased railway shipments with China in an effort to soften the economic impact of the restrictions.
Analysts say the rail network may provide temporary relief, but its capacity remains only a small fraction of what maritime shipping can handle, limiting its ability to stabilize Iran’s economy.
Blockade Pressures Iranian Economy
The U.S. Navy has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports for three weeks as part of efforts to counter Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran has disrupted international shipping during the conflict with the United States.
The blockade has sharply reduced Iran’s oil exports and limited imports of essential supplies. Economic pressure has intensified, with Iran’s currency falling to a historic low of roughly 1,311,500 Iranian rials per U.S. dollar as of May 10.
According to Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency, Kambiz Etemadi said Iran could redirect up to 40 percent of its normal maritime trade through land routes.
China–Iran Rail Route Expands
Since mid-April, freight train service from Xi’an to Tehran has accelerated from one weekly departure to one every three or four days.
According to Bloomberg, freight rates for standard 40-foot containers on the route have climbed about 40 percent to approximately $7,490 due to rising demand.
The railway is part of Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing’s long-term infrastructure strategy aimed at expanding its economic and geopolitical influence.
The route passes through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan before entering Iran. Operational since 2014, the corridor underwent major upgrades in 2025 and now allows cargo transit in roughly 15 days, significantly faster than the 30 to 40 days typically required for sea transport.
Rail Capacity Falls Far Short of Maritime Shipping
Industry analysts say the railway system cannot replace Iran’s lost maritime oil exports.
A single very large crude carrier can transport between 1.9 million and 2.2 million barrels of oil in one trip. By comparison, a specialized oil tanker train carrying 110 railcars can move only about 70,000 barrels.
According to analytics firm Energy News Beat, Iran would need between 25 and 35 full-length trains to equal the capacity of a single supertanker.
At present, the rail network mainly carries shipping containers, machinery, electronics, and higher-value cargo rather than bulk crude oil, as infrastructure for large-scale oil transport by rail remains limited.
Analysts Say Rail Network Can Only Delay Economic Crisis
Analysts say overland trade routes may slow, but not reverse, the economic strain caused by the blockade.
Mark Cao said land transportation cannot realistically replace maritime shipping volumes.
“Land-based transport ultimately cannot serve as a substitute for maritime shipping,” Cao said, adding that the strategy may only prolong Iran’s economic survival rather than prevent collapse.
Sun Kuo-hsiang said the railway is more suitable for high-value items such as spare parts, machinery, electronics, and dual-use civilian-military goods.
“It cannot carry the volume of crude oil, fuel, grain, raw materials, or containerized goods that large ships can move,” he said.
China Seen as Iran’s Most Important Economic Lifeline
Analysts believe Beijing views Iran as strategically important in its broader competition with Washington.
Cao said the Chinese Communist Party hopes Iran can continue tying down U.S. military and diplomatic resources, increasing pressure on the Trump administration.
In addition to the China rail corridor, Iran has also invested heavily in the International North-South Transport Corridor linking Russia to the Indian Ocean. However, analysts say the project remains incomplete and has been weakened by the Russia–Ukraine war.
Cao argued that China is currently Iran’s only major partner capable of both purchasing Iranian crude oil and supplying critical goods.
“Iran’s destiny is now firmly in the grip of the CCP,” he said, adding that Beijing’s influence over Tehran is likely to grow ahead of upcoming talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Trump is scheduled to meet Xi in Beijing from May 14–15.
Analysts Say China and Iran Are ‘Using Each Other’
Analysts say Beijing remains cautious about becoming too deeply involved in the conflict.
Wang He said China is unlikely to provide direct military support to Iran because it wants to avoid derailing negotiations with the United States.
“The CCP cannot allow its backing of Iran to directly derail upcoming negotiations between China and the United States,” Wang said.
He added that the railway currently serves as a vital channel for Chinese consumer goods and urgently needed medical supplies entering Iran.
Meanwhile, tensions between Tehran and Beijing have also emerged. Iran recently attacked and seized Chinese-linked oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, while China has reportedly delayed portions of a previously announced $400 billion long-term investment agreement with Iran due to regional instability.
Wang said both governments are pursuing their own interests rather than acting as true allies.
“The two sides will continue to use each other,” he said. “Neither party would risk its own survival to defend the other.”
Possible Diplomatic Outcome
Analysts say mounting military and economic pressure could eventually push Iran toward negotiations with Washington.
Sun said Tehran may pursue a limited agreement that avoids appearing to surrender outright.
“The most likely outcome would be a phased or face-saving deal,” he said, potentially involving a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, reduced escalation, humanitarian exemptions, and delayed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.
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