A classified CIA assessment reportedly concluded Iran can endure the Trump administration’s naval blockade for up to four months while retaining much of its missile capability, even as President Donald Trump temporarily halted a U.S.-led shipping operation in the Strait of Hormuz following resistance from Saudi Arabia.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
A newly disclosed CIA assessment reportedly warns that Iran may be capable of withstanding the economic pressure of the Trump administration’s naval blockade for at least 90 to 120 days, despite repeated White House assertions that Tehran is nearing collapse.
According to a Washington Post report, the classified intelligence analysis delivered to senior U.S. policymakers this week found that Iran still retains much of its missile infrastructure after weeks of joint U.S. and Israeli strikes.
Officials familiar with the report told the Post that Tehran maintains roughly 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile and approximately 75 percent of its mobile launch systems. The assessment also found that Iran has managed to reopen underground storage facilities and repair portions of damaged military infrastructure.
The findings appear to conflict with comments made Wednesday by Donald Trump, who claimed at the White House that Iran’s missile arsenal had been “mostly decimated.”
“Our missiles are mostly decimated, they have probably 18, 19%, but not a lot by comparison to what they had,” Trump said.
Administration officials defended the effectiveness of the blockade while acknowledging that Iran continues to adapt under pressure.
A senior U.S. intelligence official told the Post that “The President’s blockade is inflicting real, compounding damage—severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse.”
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Iran was “crushed militarily” during “Operation Epic Fury” and is now being “strangled economically” through what she called “Operation Economic Fury.”
Kelly claimed the blockade is costing Iran approximately $500 million per day and argued that Tehran recognizes its position is unsustainable as negotiations continue.
Despite the pressure campaign, intelligence officials cited by the Post said Iran has adapted by storing oil aboard tankers, reducing production to preserve infrastructure, and preparing possible alternative export routes through Central Asia.
One U.S. official reportedly warned the CIA analysis may even underestimate Iran’s staying power.
“The leadership has gotten more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance,” the official said.
Analysts also warned that Iran’s drone capabilities continue to pose a serious threat to commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Former Israeli intelligence official Danny Citrinowicz told the Post that even limited drone attacks could severely disrupt global oil shipments because insurers may refuse to cover vessels operating in the region.
“The problem is they don’t think they need to capitulate,” Citrinowicz said.
The developments came as Trump abruptly paused “Project Freedom,” a U.S.-backed operation intended to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz after objections from Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi leadership.
According to a NBC News report, Saudi Arabia suspended access to key military bases and airspace required for the operation after officials complained they had not been adequately consulted before Trump publicly announced the initiative.
Saudi authorities reportedly informed Washington they would no longer permit U.S. military aircraft supporting the operation to fly from Prince Sultan Air Base or transit Saudi airspace.
Officials told NBC News that a phone call between Trump and bin Salman failed to resolve the dispute, forcing the administration to suspend the mission.
A Saudi source said Riyadh remained supportive of diplomatic negotiations, including mediation efforts led by Pakistan.
A White House official disputed claims that regional allies had been blindsided and insisted partners had been notified in advance.
A Middle Eastern diplomat separately told NBC News that Oman was also not informed until after Trump publicly announced the operation.
“The U.S. made an announcement and then coordinated with us,” the diplomat said.
Before the operation was paused, U.S. Central Command had reportedly begun positioning additional naval assets for convoy operations through the strait and said two U.S.-flagged ships had already transited successfully under Project Freedom.
Trump announced Wednesday that the operation would be “paused for a short period of time” while negotiations with Iran continue.
The administration has continued expanding military assets in the region, including maintaining two carrier strike groups in the Gulf along with refueling aircraft and air defense systems stationed in Saudi Arabia.
Trump said discussions with Iran had progressed positively over the previous 24 hours.
“They want to make a deal,” he said.
Iranian officials confirmed they are reviewing a new U.S. proposal, while Wang Yi called for an immediate ceasefire and renewed negotiations.
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