By Elsie Kamsiyochi
Two months into Iran’s escalating conflict with the United States and Israel, the country’s political system is undergoing one of the most dramatic transformations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. For decades, Iran’s leadership revolved around a single figure — the Supreme Leader — who held ultimate authority over military, political, and religious affairs.
That long-standing model has now been shaken, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has emerged as the dominant force steering the nation through war.
The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening phase of the conflict marked a turning point in Iran’s power structure. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was elevated to the leadership position, but insiders say his authority is far more symbolic than absolute. Rather than directing national policy himself, Mojtaba is said to be approving decisions already shaped by senior military commanders and security officials. This shift has effectively diluted the once-central role of the Supreme Leader and transferred real control into the hands of wartime institutions.
At the center of this transformation is the IRGC, which now appears to control not only battlefield operations but also key diplomatic and strategic decisions. Iranian officials and regional analysts say power has become concentrated within a small inner circle made up of the Revolutionary Guards, the Supreme National Security Council, and loyal figures inside the clerical establishment. In this new arrangement, military leaders are no longer simply carrying out policy — they are increasingly writing it.
Diplomatic efforts have also reflected the change. While Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi remains the public face of negotiations with Washington, those involved in regional mediation efforts say responses from Tehran have become slower and more fragmented. Foreign intermediaries describe a system where no single person can quickly make final decisions, suggesting Iran’s command structure has become more collective but also more rigid under wartime pressure.
Despite speculation abroad, analysts say the delays are not necessarily a sign of internal division. Instead, they point to a leadership that has become more unified around a hardline position. The Guards and their allies appear determined to resist Western pressure, preserve Iran’s regional influence, and avoid any agreement that could be seen domestically as surrender. In this environment, compromise has become politically dangerous, and flexibility is increasingly viewed as weakness.
The IRGC’s growing influence could have lasting consequences beyond the current conflict. Observers believe the shift marks a deeper transition from clerical rule toward a security-dominated state, where military power carries more weight than religious authority. What was once a system guided by a supreme religious figure is now increasingly being run by commanders whose worldview is shaped by survival, deterrence, and confrontation.
For now, Iran’s leadership remains intact, and there are no visible signs of a split within the ruling elite. But the balance of power inside the Islamic Republic has clearly changed. As the war continues, the Revolutionary Guards are no longer operating behind the throne — they are becoming the throne itself.
Source: Reuters
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