Officials say easing tensions and falling crude prices could drive pump costs down in the coming months.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Gasoline prices in the United States declined modestly over the past week as crude oil prices retreated following a temporary ceasefire involving Iran, with officials signaling the potential for further relief at the pump this summer.
According to data from the American Automobile Association, the national average price for gasoline fell from $4.15 per gallon to $4.07 as of Friday. The organization said in an April 16 statement that oil prices have remained below $100 per barrel since the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
“After last week’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, the price for a barrel of crude oil has continued to trade below $100,” AAA said, noting that shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains reduced as negotiations continue.
Crude prices have fluctuated significantly in recent days. Brent crude, which had reached approximately $109 per barrel following the April 7 ceasefire announcement tied to the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran, fell to around $90 midweek before rising to about $96.24 per barrel early Friday.
Despite the recent decline, gasoline prices remain higher than levels seen a month ago, when the national average stood at $3.79 per gallon. Regional disparities persist, with prices exceeding $5 per gallon in Washington, Hawaii, and California. California reported the highest average at $5.85, while prices were lower in states such as Texas at $3.71 and below $3.50 in Kansas and Oklahoma.
Market attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route responsible for more than 20 percent of seaborne oil trade. Disruptions tied to the conflict have contributed to volatility in energy markets. On April 13, the U.S. Navy imposed a blockade on vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports after negotiations between Washington and Tehran stalled.
Iran has warned it could respond by targeting regional ports and restricting traffic across the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, and Gulf of Oman, actions that could further constrain oil supply.
In an April 16 analysis, ING Bank said approximately 13 million barrels per day of oil flows from the Persian Gulf region have been disrupted due to the blockade. The firm noted that market participants are anticipating a near-term resolution, though supply is expected to remain below pre-conflict levels.
“For now, our base case is that energy flows will start to make a gradual recovery through the second quarter. However, flows will remain below pre-war levels until at least year-end,” ING said, projecting Brent crude to average $96 per barrel in the second quarter and $89 for 2026 overall. The bank also warned that a more severe escalation could push prices above $150 per barrel if supply disruptions worsen.
Military and diplomatic developments continue to influence market outlook. During a Pentagon briefing, U.S. Central Command Commander Adm. Brad Cooper said the United States was “rearming, retooling, and adapting our tactics, techniques, and procedures” during the ceasefire period.
At the same briefing, War Secretary Pete Hegseth urged Iran to reach an agreement with the United States, stating, “We are locked and loaded on your critical dual-use infrastructure, on your remaining power generation, and on your energy industry. We’d rather not have to do it.”
President Donald Trump said Thursday that additional negotiations could occur before the ceasefire expires, expressing optimism about a potential agreement. “It’s looking very good that we’re going to make a deal with Iran, and it’s going to be a good deal. It’s going to be a deal with no nuclear weapons,” he said.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that consumers may see further relief in the months ahead. Speaking to reporters on April 15, he said gasoline prices could fall to around $3 per gallon between late June and late September.
“I’m optimistic that during the summer, we will see gas with a three in front of us sooner rather than later,” Bessent said, adding that easing tensions and a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would likely contribute to continued declines in fuel prices.
The trajectory of gasoline costs remains closely tied to geopolitical developments, with ongoing negotiations and regional stability expected to play a central role in determining price trends in the coming months.
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