By Elsie Kamsiyochi
As SpaceX edges closer to what could become the largest initial public offering in history, Wall Street is venturing far outside traditional valuation playbooks. Investors, analysts and major institutions are increasingly forced to rethink how to measure a company that operates at the intersection of aerospace, telecommunications, artificial intelligence, and frontier technology—a combination with no true rival in the public markets.
Behind the scenes, at least one of SpaceX’s major institutional backers is not comparing Elon Musk’s rocket-and-satellite powerhouse to industry incumbents like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Verizon, or AT&T. Instead, they are benchmarking the company against high-growth tech darlings such as Palantir Technologies, GE Vernova, and Vertiv—firms whose soaring valuations are driven by their central roles in the AI infrastructure boom.
This unconventional approach reveals how aggressively Wall Street is working to justify a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation, even in the absence of clear financial transparency or comparable companies.
A Company Without Peers—and a Market Struggling to Price It
SpaceX confidentially filed for an IPO in the United States, with an investor analyst day planned for April 21. Yet the company’s path to going public has exposed a fundamental problem: How do you price a company that operates in markets it essentially created?
Traditional valuation metrics—such as earnings multiples, cash flow ratios, and sector-based comparisons—fall short when applied to SpaceX. The company simultaneously dominates:
- Orbital launch services, through Falcon 9 and Starship
- Global satellite internet, through its rapidly expanding Starlink constellation
- AI-powered space operations, which remain difficult to value but potentially transformative
Even compared with legacy peers like Boeing or Lockheed, SpaceX’s business model and technological lead make direct comparisons almost meaningless. SpaceX has redefined what rocket reusability, launch cadence, and cost efficiency look like—effectively resetting the entire sector.
As one valuation expert, NYU professor Aswath Damodaran, put it:
“Nobody else has the capacity to launch satellites in those numbers or at those prices. That’s their big advantage.”
Why Investors Are Looking at Palantir and AI Infrastructure Stocks
Rather than frame SpaceX as a traditional aerospace or telecommunications business, some investors instead view it as an AI infrastructure giant in the making.
The argument:
- SpaceX’s Starlink network is not just an internet provider—it is a global digital infrastructure platform.
- Its rocket manufacturing division is not merely hardware—it is the backbone that makes satellite deployment and next-gen data networks possible.
- The company’s combination of low-cost launches and global orbital coverage resembles the economics of rare, monopoly-like infrastructure plays.
With this lens, the most relevant comps become high-growth, high-multiple companies like Palantir, Vertiv, and GE Vernova—firms that investors reward for their critical roles in the AI data-center ecosystem.
For example, Palantir trades at:
- 43× expected revenue
- 75× earnings
Even so, SpaceX’s projected multiples at a $1.75 trillion valuation—110× estimated 2025 revenue—would surpass even the most expensive tech stocks.
As PitchBook analyst Franco Granda summarized: “Investors are paying a platform premium today for infrastructure-monopoly economics tomorrow.”
The Starlink Puzzle: Why Traditional Telecom Comparisons Fall Short
Although Starlink is technically an internet service provider, investors argue it should not be compared with stagnant, slow-growth legacy telecoms.
AT&T and Verizon are weighed down by:
- Aging infrastructure
- Saturated markets
- Heavy debt burdens
- Slow revenue growth
Starlink, by contrast, sits at the heart of what could be a $1.6 trillion global communications market, according to internal figures cited by SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen. Its satellite-based architecture gives it worldwide reach, including in remote regions where traditional telecoms cannot compete.
One major institutional investor summarized the argument:
“They’re in the business of communication, but the business model could not be more different.”
Rocket Manufacturing: A Category of Its Own
The rocket-manufacturing wing of SpaceX—responsible for Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship—further complicates attempts at valuation. Legacy aerospace firms such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing operate heavily in government contracting and face:
- Slower innovation cycles
- High procurement risks
- Substantial regulatory constraints
SpaceX, meanwhile, has:
- Developed and perfected reusable rockets, slashing launch costs
- Captured a huge share of the commercial launch market
- Built unmatched annual launch capability
Because of this, some investors argue SpaceX should instead be compared with industrial firms positioned as essential suppliers to the AI boom—companies like GE Vernova or Vertiv. These firms have recently enjoyed market-wide re-ratings thanks to skyrocketing demand for AI data-center infrastructure.
Yet even these “preferred comps” fall short of reflecting SpaceX’s broader influence and operational scale.
The Messiness Behind a Mega-Valuation
Bankers, investors, and analysts admit that pricing SpaceX will inevitably be messy. With limited financial disclosures, powerful hype cycles, and Elon Musk’s influence on investor psychology, the company is nearly impossible to value through traditional methodologies.
Damodaran notes that much of SpaceX’s current pricing seems like investors trying to rationalize a decision they have already made emotionally:
“They’ve decided SpaceX is a great buy. Now they’re looking for ways to justify it.”
This psychological dynamic—combined with SpaceX’s market-making position—may be the strongest driver behind the $1.75 trillion figure.
A Company That Redefines Its Own Category
SpaceX has done more than revolutionize spaceflight—it has effectively rewritten the rulebook for how Wall Street thinks about growth companies, infrastructure platforms, and long-term secular trends.
Whether or not the $1.75 trillion valuation proves sustainable, the broader implication is clear: SpaceX is not being priced like a space company. It is being priced like the backbone of the next digital and industrial era.
As the IPO approaches, investors are betting not only on rockets and satellites but on the belief that SpaceX is building a foundational global infrastructure that no competitor can easily replicate.
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