Smoking is really bad for you. Most people know that. Even smokers . But most people don’t know just how bad it is.
More people in the United States than from alcohol, illegal drug use, car accidents, suicides and murders combined. Cigarette smoking costs an estimated annually in health care costs, which harm not only smokers but also nonsmokers, communities and the economy. Smoking is the top preventable and .
The number of smokers in the U.S. from 41% in 1944 to 11% in 2024. However, .
This drop is partly the result of many enacted in the past 50 years. They include national bans on cigarette advertising on television and radio (1971), smoking on commercial flights (2000), sale of fruit- or candy-flavored cigarettes (2009), and sale of cigarettes to people ages 18 to 20 (2019). New policies might seem as strange or unfamiliar as these measures did at the time.
One potentially transformative idea – creating a tobacco-free generation – would build on these past laws. It would phase out smoking by banning it permanently for anyone born after a specific date. For example, a law could make it illegal for anyone under 21 to ever buy cigarettes, whereas people age 21 or older at the time would not be affected. The focus would be on tobacco sales, which in the U.S., not on criminalizing tobacco use.
As a , I have studied for decades how people think about smoking. In my view, the key obstacle to creating future generations of nonsmokers is that people do not fully understand how dangerous smoking is and do not realize the formidable influence of the tobacco industry.
Creating a tobacco-free generation
The idea of creating a tobacco-free generation was . In 2021 the town of , became the first U.S. community to adopt it. Brookline’s ordinance prohibits tobacco and vape sales to anyone born on or after Jan. 1, 2000. It has survived a legal challenge and has been emulated in .
As of early 2026, and are considering statewide tobacco-free generation bills. Abroad, the Maldives enacted the first countrywide ban in 2025.
Similar proposals have faced pushback elsewhere. In , a ban was adopted in 2022 but repealed in 2024. The is considering a similar bill after an earlier version was scrapped due to a snap election.
Why people underestimate harm from cigarettes
It is hard to visualize what exactly it means that 480,000 people in the U.S. die from smoking every year or that each cigarette that you smoke . It is also easy to feel about one’s personal risk as a smoker and believe that others are more likely to become .
Studies show that nonsmokers, former smokers and current smokers . One likely reason is messaging by the tobacco industry, which claimed for decades that , even though tobacco industry scientists that smoking caused lung cancer.
Another factor is glamorization of cigarettes in movies. Fully half of the top films released in 2024 , typically of cigarettes. Research shows that adolescents and young adults who watch smoking in movies .
Finally, smoking deaths may seem to be unremarkable because some of the illnesses that cigarette smoking causes, such as heart disease or cancer, are commonplace. And unlike deaths from drug overdoses, we do not always see the consequences of a lifetime of smoking.
What about freedom of choice?
A common argument against laws that regulate personal choices, such as whether to smoke or , is that people and don’t like governments telling them how to live. This isn’t a new challenge for public health policies, which often restrict private citizens’ .
People can be persuaded that community action should trump individual choice if a behavior, such as smoking cigarettes or , harms others who don’t engage in it. Many public health laws are designed to protect people who are innocent or vulnerable. For example, current smoking laws have been enacted in part to protect nonsmokers who are exposed to , especially children. And smoking , not just smokers.
By preventing people in the U.S. who cannot legally buy cigarettes now from ever doing so, generational smoking bans balance the rights of current adult smokers against the major public health benefits of a phased smoking ban that will eventually end the smoking epidemic.
Arguments against generational smoking laws
The tobacco industry’s attempts to undermine tobacco health policies are and . For example, when the U.K. government considered a generational smoking policy in 2023, tobacco companies and their supporters argued that smoking was a minor problem, that individuals should be responsible for their own choices, and that a nationwide ban would .
In a 2025 study assessing , researchers heard similar arguments. Respondents across the political spectrum valued personal freedom and informed individual choice more highly than protecting children. The politicians also believed that young people could understand how smoking affected their health, and that raising awareness was more important than bans. These arguments aligned with tobacco industry positions.
However, research shows that young people hold many , especially with respect to and the likelihood that they will avoid becoming lifelong smokers. Studies have also found that adolescents to smoke. These findings matter because the tobacco industry in an effort to create lifelong smokers.
The tobacco industry’s harm reduction approach frames , also known as vapes, as a way to create a smoke-free future by . But research shows that the tobacco industry actively markets nicotine products such as vapes to young people to .
Not a silver bullet
Curbing the , and there are ways for young people to , as they do now in places where cigarette buyers . Tactics include shopping at stores that don’t check IDs, having older friends buy cigarettes and purchasing cigarettes illegally online.
Tobacco-free generation policies aren’t a silver bullet. They work most effectively , such as plain packaging; high prices; bans on displays, advertising and flavored products; smoking cessation support; and public health messages making clear that cigarettes are unsafe at any age.
Still, and groups including the argue that creating a tobacco-free generation could dramatically reduce preventable deaths and secure a healthier future for today’s children and future generations. In my view, understanding the obstacles to change is a critical step toward achieving this goal.
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