By Elsie Kamsiyochi
Israel’s intensifying bombardment of Lebanon has pushed the already-fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire to the brink of collapse, deepening fears of a regional war spiralling beyond control.
The latest wave of attacks, the deadliest of the conflict so far, left more than 250 people dead in Lebanon and immediately cast doubt over former U.S. President Donald Trump’s much-publicized truce effort. Instead of calming the region, the ceasefire announcement has opened a new chapter of mutual mistrust, political brinkmanship, and spiraling human suffering.
In Pakistan, where the first face-to-face peace negotiations of the war are scheduled to begin, authorities moved swiftly to lock down the capital. Islamabad’s normally bustling center transformed into a restricted security zone as the government cordoned off a 3-kilometre radius around the Serena Hotel, which has been fully evacuated and requisitioned to host the American and Iranian delegations.
The extraordinary security measures underscored the stakes: any breakthrough in the talks could determine whether the Middle East descends further into chaos or inches toward de-escalation.
But optimism was scarce. Even as preparations for talks advanced, Iran refused to lift its near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most vital oil arteries—insisting that no agreement was possible while Israel continued striking Lebanese territory. Tehran’s stance placed enormous pressure on global energy markets, already rattled by the worst shipping disruption in modern history.
Before the war, roughly 140 vessels passed through Hormuz each day; in the first full day of the ceasefire, only six ships managed the transit. Shipping volumes have plunged to below 10% of their normal levels, a collapse with immediate and far-reaching consequences.
Israel, meanwhile, insists that Lebanon is outside the scope of the ceasefire announced by Trump late Tuesday. Washington has echoed that position, but Iran and Pakistan—key mediators—have rejected it, arguing that Lebanon was explicitly included in the agreement’s terms. European governments, including France and Britain, have publicly urged that the truce be extended to cover Lebanon before the conflict grows entirely unmanageable.
The latest Israeli strikes demonstrated the scale of the escalation. The Israeli military announced it had killed the nephew of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem and destroyed multiple crossings in southern Lebanon.
Heavy bombardments struck Beirut’s southern suburbs throughout the night and into Thursday morning, prompting Israel to expand evacuation orders around the capital. Districts near Beirut’s international airport and the massive Camille Chamoun stadium—now a shelter for displaced families—were suddenly emptied as residents fled incoming airstrikes.
Hezbollah responded with at least 20 attacks, targeting Israeli vehicles on Lebanese territory and firing into northern Israel.
The violence added yet another layer of complexity to peace efforts, as both sides hardened their positions. Lebanese officials described the previous day’s strikes, which obliterated crowded residential areas without warning, as a massacre. Throughout the night, rescue workers searched for survivors and recovered body parts from the rubble.
At Beirut’s main hospitals, ambulances bypassed emergency rooms and headed straight to morgues already overwhelmed by casualties. One rescue worker said intact bodies were increasingly rare. A grieving woman told reporters she had lost her entire family.
Within Israel, officials signaled that while the attacks would continue, their frequency might decrease once talks begin. A member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet said the massive strikes were made possible by the temporary lull in operations over Iran, allowing the air force to redirect overwhelming firepower into Lebanon. He described the assault as a strategic opportunity unlikely to recur once negotiations begin.
Yet the pressure on both the U.S. and Iran remains immense. After six weeks of war, Trump has sought a pathway out, aware that soaring oil prices—particularly physical barrels selling near a record $150—are already punishing economies worldwide. Diesel in the U.S. has surged to within cents of its all-time high, a politically perilous development. The ceasefire has slowed the rise in futures prices but done little to ease the immediate global energy crunch.
Inside Iran, the temporary halt in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes has been celebrated as a triumph. Millions of Iranians marked 40 days of mourning for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the war’s first day.
Massive crowds filled the streets of Tehran and other cities, where portraits of Khamenei and his son Mojtaba—widely seen as his successor—were carried alongside national flags. A gigantic Hezbollah banner hung from a high-rise, underscoring Tehran’s message that its regional network remains intact and defiant.
Trump, who framed the truce as a victory and a step toward forcing Iranian compliance, warned that U.S. attacks would resume if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
But despite his declaration of success, Washington has not achieved any of the major objectives it announced at the war’s outset: Iran’s missile and drone capabilities remain operational, its nuclear program retains more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, and the regime remains firmly in control after quashing domestic unrest.
Moreover, Iran’s ability to choke off the world’s most important oil route—even under the threat of overwhelming U.S. military force—has been demonstrated beyond doubt.
Both sides are now approaching the peace talks with long and conflicting lists of demands. Iran wants sweeping concessions, including full sanctions relief and U.S. acknowledgment of its authority over Hormuz. The U.S. wants the dismantling of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, an end to missile development, and the withdrawal of support for armed groups across the region—essentially the same demands that derailed negotiations just before the war began.
With Israel doubling down on strikes in Lebanon, Iran refusing to lift its blockade, and global markets absorbing blow after blow, the upcoming talks in Islamabad may determine whether this fragile moment becomes a turning point or the prelude to an even larger catastrophe.
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