By Rosemary
With just days remaining before Peru heads to the polls, Keiko Fujimori has emerged as the frontrunner in a highly fragmented presidential race, though support remains too divided for any candidate to secure an outright victory in the first round.
Three major opinion surveys released this week place Fujimori at the top of voter preferences, reflecting modest but consistent gains in support as the campaign enters its final stretch. According to polling by Datum International, Fujimori commands 14.5% of voter intention, marking a slight increase from earlier readings and reinforcing her position as the candidate to beat.
Despite leading the field, Fujimori’s margin underscores the deeply splintered nature of the contest. A record 35 candidates are vying for the presidency, making it virtually impossible for any single contender to surpass the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff. As a result, a second-round vote scheduled for June 7 is widely seen as inevitable.
The latest polling also highlights a shrinking but still significant bloc of undecided voters. Approximately 16.8% of the electorate remains uncommitted, down from nearly 24% in previous surveys. Analysts say this shift suggests that voters are gradually consolidating around leading candidates, though no clear two-person race has fully taken shape.
One of the most notable developments in recent weeks has been the rise of Carlos Alvarez, a former comedian who has rapidly gained traction among voters. Alvarez has climbed into second place in the Datum poll with 10.9%, a sharp increase from earlier figures, signaling growing appeal beyond his initial base.
Meanwhile, Rafael Lopez Aliaga, a conservative figure and former mayor of Lima, has seen his support slip slightly. Once positioned as a leading challenger, he now trails in third place with 9.9%, reflecting a decline from previous polling. However, the narrow margins separating the top contenders mean that the race for a spot in the runoff remains highly competitive.
Other polling firms, including Ipsos Peru and the Peruvian Market Research Company, confirm Fujimori’s lead but differ on the ranking of her closest rivals, with some surveys placing Alvarez ahead and others showing Lopez Aliaga maintaining a stronger position. The discrepancies underscore the volatility of the race and the difficulty in predicting which candidates will ultimately advance.
Political analysts note that the dynamics of the campaign have shifted in recent weeks. Rather than focusing primarily on undecided voters, candidates are increasingly targeting each other’s support bases in an effort to consolidate backing and secure a place in the runoff. With margins so tight, even small shifts in voter allegiance could significantly alter the outcome.
Beyond the leading trio, several candidates remain within striking distance, each polling in the high single digits. These include centrist sociologist Jorge Nieto, former Lima mayor Ricardo Belmont, left-leaning lawmaker Roberto Sanchez, and progressive economist Alfonso Lopez Chau.
Among them, Lopez Chau had previously surged in earlier polls, at one point reaching second place. However, his support has since declined, with recent surveys placing him anywhere from fourth to seventh, reflecting the fluid nature of voter preferences in a crowded field.
Fujimori, making her fourth bid for the presidency, remains one of the most recognizable figures in Peruvian politics. As the daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, her candidacy continues to evoke strong reactions across the political spectrum, drawing both loyal supporters and vocal critics.
As election day approaches, the central question is no longer whether a runoff will occur, but which candidates will emerge from the crowded field to compete in it. With voter sentiment still shifting and margins between contenders razor-thin, the coming days are expected to be decisive in shaping the final outcome of Peru’s unpredictable presidential race.
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