By Blessing Nweke
President Donald Trump declared Wednesday night that “regime change” has occurred in Iran following the deaths of several top leaders, including longtime supreme leader Ali Khamenei. However, Western officials and analysts say there is no clear evidence that the Islamic Republic has lost control or shifted its ideological stance.
Since the conflict began on Feb. 28, U.S. and Israeli strikes have reportedly killed key figures such as Ali Larijani and Mohammad Pakpour, along with multiple ministers and senior commanders. Despite these losses, replacement leaders are described as equally hard-line or more militant.
Experts say Iran’s ruling system remains resilient. Karim Sajadpour noted that new leaders are committed to the principles of the 1979 revolution and may govern more aggressively due to legitimacy concerns.
Uncertainty surrounds who is currently in charge. After Khamenei’s death, officials named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor, though Trump has said his status is unclear. Meanwhile, the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps appears to maintain strong control over both military and political structures.
Siamak Namazi said the removal of multiple decision-makers has made Iran’s leadership dynamics harder to predict. U.S. intelligence, cited by Tulsi Gabbard, assesses the regime as “intact but degraded.”
Attention has also turned to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a veteran official with deep ties to the Revolutionary Guard, who may be playing a key role behind the scenes.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged the situation remains opaque, saying it is still unclear how decisions are being made within Iran’s leadership.
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