BY COMFORT OGBONNA
Oil prices continued to climb on Monday, extending strong gains as tensions across the Middle East intensified following new attacks linked to the ongoing conflict involving Israel, Iran, and allied groups in the region. The surge pushed Brent crude toward one of its largest monthly increases on record as markets reacted to growing fears that the war could further disrupt global energy supplies.
Brent crude futures rose $3.94, or about 3.5%, to reach $116.51 per barrel at 0703 GMT after closing 4.2% higher on Friday. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $102.14 per barrel, gaining $1.86, or roughly 1.87%, after posting a 5.5% rise in the previous trading session.
Energy markets have been on edge since Yemen’s Houthi forces launched their first attacks on Israel over the weekend since the start of the war. The development signals that the conflict is spreading across the region, increasing concerns about the stability of critical shipping routes and oil infrastructure in the Middle East.
Analysts say the oil market is increasingly pricing in the possibility that the conflict could escalate further rather than end through negotiations in the near term. Vandana Hari, founder of the oil market analysis firm Vanda Insights, said traders appear to have largely ruled out a quick diplomatic resolution despite ongoing discussions involving the United States and Iran.
According to Hari, the market is now preparing for a potential surge in military activity across the region, which is pushing oil prices higher as uncertainty grows about how long the conflict may last and how deeply it may affect energy supplies.
U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and Iran have held both direct and indirect discussions, adding that Iran’s newly installed leadership has shown a willingness to engage constructively. However, the situation on the ground appears to be moving in the opposite direction, with additional U.S. troops arriving in the region and Israel expanding its military operations.
The Israeli military said on Monday that it had begun targeting infrastructure linked to the Iranian government throughout Tehran as part of its campaign. At the same time, Iranian forces reportedly launched several waves of missiles toward Israel, while an additional attack was launched from Yemen, marking only the second such strike since the conflict began.
Oil prices have soared dramatically this month, with Brent crude rising by about 59%. The rally represents the sharpest monthly gain on record and exceeds the price increases seen during the 1990 Gulf War. Much of the surge has been driven by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important energy corridors in the world.
The narrow waterway connects the Persian Gulf to global shipping routes and handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies. With the conflict effectively limiting traffic through the strait, traders fear that prolonged disruption could significantly reduce the amount of crude reaching global markets.
The war, which began on February 28 with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian facilities, has steadily expanded beyond its original flashpoints. Fighting has spread across several parts of the Middle East, raising alarm about the safety of shipping routes along the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea.
Analysts at JP Morgan warned that the conflict is no longer limited to the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, the security risks have expanded toward the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another vital chokepoint for global energy shipments that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
In a research note led by Natasha Kaneva, JP Morgan analysts said that instability around these routes could create major disruptions in the flow of crude oil and refined products between the Middle East, Europe, and Asia.
Recent data from energy analytics firm Kpler showed that Saudi Arabia has already been redirecting more crude shipments away from the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, exports routed through the kingdom’s Red Sea port of Yanbu reached approximately 4.658 million barrels per day.
If shipments from Yanbu were to face disruptions as well, analysts say Saudi Arabia could shift additional volumes through Egypt’s Suez-Mediterranean pipeline, commonly known as the SUMED pipeline, which transports oil across Egypt to the Mediterranean Sea.
However, the situation remains volatile. Over the weekend, attacks in the region escalated and reportedly damaged Oman’s Salalah energy terminal, raising further concerns about the security of oil infrastructure and shipping lanes across the wider region.
Iran has also warned that it is prepared to respond forcefully to any potential U.S. ground assault. Iranian officials accused Washington of preparing a possible land attack even while diplomatic discussions appear to be taking place behind the scenes.
Efforts to find a diplomatic solution are continuing. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said discussions have been underway about possible steps to bring a swift and lasting end to the conflict. He noted that conversations have also touched on the possibility of future talks between the United States and Iran being held in Islamabad.
Meanwhile, the ripple effects of the conflict are already being felt across global energy markets. Vietnam’s Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical company said on Monday that it is holding talks with Russian partners about purchasing additional crude supplies.
The company added that it is also looking to diversify its oil imports by increasing purchases from Africa, the United States, and other parts of Southeast Asia in order to reduce potential supply risks linked to the Middle East crisis.
As tensions continue to escalate, traders, governments, and energy companies around the world are closely watching developments in the region, aware that any further disruption to key oil transit routes could push global energy prices even higher in the weeks ahead.
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