Worsening conditions on the island and shifting U.S. policy are fueling renewed debate over Cuba’s political future.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Cuba’s leadership is facing increasing pressure as economic deterioration, public unrest, and U.S. policy converge, according to an in-depth report by The Epoch Times.
The situation has drawn attention both inside and outside the island, including a widely shared social media post earlier this year by Selena Lambert Ortega, a 24-year-old from Santiago de Cuba. In January, she asked fellow citizens to weigh in on who should lead the country, with respondents overwhelmingly favoring U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio over current President Miguel Díaz-Canel before authorities intervened and ordered the post removed.
Ninoska Perez Castellon, a radio host and member of the Cuban exile community in Miami, said the response reflected broader public sentiment.
“The poll was taken off Facebook, but it shows you what the mentality is inside Cuba,” she said.
Perez Castellon later showed the results to Rubio during a visit to the State Department, where she said he responded humorously, noting he did not want additional responsibilities.
Rubio, who is engaged in ongoing discussions involving Cuba, has publicly emphasized the need for systemic change. Speaking to reporters on March 17, he said the country’s leadership must be replaced.
“They have to get new people in charge,” Rubio said, adding that the current government is unable to resolve the nation’s economic challenges.
Cuba’s economic situation has worsened following the suspension of subsidized oil shipments from Venezuela, which had supported the island for decades through a barter system exchanging services for energy resources. The disruption followed the U.S. military capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro earlier this year, removing a key source of external support.
The resulting shortages have contributed to widespread protests across the island, with residents facing frequent blackouts, food scarcity, and limited access to medicine. Observers say public willingness to demonstrate has increased as conditions deteriorate.
“This is a country that is in ruins. You’ve seen the images of the trash piling up on the streets. You’ve seen people without electricity for long periods. Their food spoils,” Perez Castellon said.
“They have no water. They can’t wash their clothes or send the kids to school. So it is a whole drama of what people are living through there.”
Tomas Pojar, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said the country’s internal challenges are longstanding.
“The Cubans are suffering because of the regime that they have had there for decades. There is no doubt about it,” he said. “The regime is trying to place all the blame on others, but the fact is that it is a dysfunctional, oppressive regime, as it has always been since the beginning.”
Migration trends reflect the worsening conditions. According to Human Rights Watch, Cuba has experienced a significant population decline in recent years, with government data indicating a loss of roughly 10% of its population, though independent estimates suggest the figure may be higher.
U.S. policy toward Cuba continues to center on conditions outlined in the Helms–Burton Act, which codifies the embargo and ties its removal to specific political reforms. Rubio referenced the law when asked about potential changes to sanctions.
“Suffice it to say, the embargo is tied to political change on the island,” he said. “The embargo’s codified.”
The law requires Cuba to release political prisoners, permit opposition political parties and a free press, and hold internationally supervised elections before sanctions can be lifted. It also calls for progress toward a market-based economy, the establishment of an independent judiciary, and compensation for U.S. assets confiscated after the 1959 revolution.
John Suarez, executive director of the Center for a Free Cuba, said the framework leaves limited flexibility.
“There are two possibilities for the United States: Congress repeals the law, or the regime fulfills those conditions to have the sanctions lifted,” Suarez said. “There’s wiggle room to try to improve relations in certain areas, but fundamentally, the embargo does not go away until those conditions are met.”
President Donald Trump has also addressed Cuba’s situation in recent weeks. Speaking during a March 7 event in Miami, he said the island’s future could shift following developments elsewhere in the region, according to remarks reported here.
“Cuba’s at the end of the line,” Trump said.
He later described his approach as a “friendly takeover,” stating, “That’s a big honor. They’re a very weakened nation right now,” though he did not provide further details on what that would entail.
U.S. military officials have indicated no immediate plans for direct intervention. Gen. Francis Donovan, head of U.S. Southern Command, told lawmakers the military is not preparing for an invasion, according to congressional testimony coverage.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel responded publicly to the remarks, stating that the United States has repeatedly threatened the country and accusing Washington of seeking control over its resources and economy.
On March 13, Díaz-Canel confirmed that discussions had taken place between Cuban and U.S. officials, according to reporting on the talks. The announcement followed a separate decision by Cuba to release 51 prisoners, which officials attributed to diplomatic engagement with the Vatican.
Human rights groups estimate that more than 1,200 political prisoners remain in Cuba. Analysts say the release of detainees represents an initial step but does not meet the broader conditions required under U.S. law.
According to The Epoch Times, Cuba does not permit legal opposition parties, and individuals who gain political support often face detention or other restrictions, limiting prospects for organized opposition movements.
Perez Castellon said that unlike in Venezuela, where opposition leaders have unified movements, Cuba’s dissenting voices remain fragmented.
“In Venezuela, Maria Corina Machado had a whole movement behind her,” she said. “In Cuba, however, dissidents mostly act independently and operate in small groups.”
U.S. officials, including Rubio, have maintained contact with some opposition figures, but analysts note that no single leader has emerged to unify political opposition within the country.
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